Ethereum/Eurite (ETHEURI) Market Overview

• ETHEURI declines 5.6% over 24 hours, closing at 3526.44 after a late recovery from 3393.21
• Momentum weakens as RSI drops below 40, suggesting oversold conditions but bearish bias intact
• Volatility expands on Bollinger Bands, with price near lower band during key selloff
• Volume peaks at 17.22k during early-morning drop, signaling strong bearish conviction
• 61.8% Fibonacci level at 3436.44 shows some support, but trend remains bearish for now

Ethereum/Eurite (ETHEURI) opened at 3566.28 on 2025-10-13 at 12:00 ET and closed at 3526.44 at the same time on 2025-10-14, reaching a high of 3691.82 and a low of 3393.21. Total traded volume over 24 hours was 148.08k units, with notional turnover of approximately 506.24 million EUR (assuming average price of 3420). The pair appears to be in a short-term bearish consolidation phase, with a potential pullback forming on the charts.

The 15-minute chart reveals a bearish structure forming around 3500-3550, with the 20-period EMA (3550.43) below the 50-period EMA (3586.71), indicating a bearish crossover. Key support levels appear at 3436.44 (61.8% Fibonacci retrace) and 3401.17 (prior floor). Resistance is clustered near 3526.44 and 3550, with price failing to hold above 3566.28 for more than a few candles. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 3592.08, confirming downward pressure, while a long lower shadow at 3588.38 suggests short-covering or a brief pause in the decline.

The MACD turned negative in the final hour, with a bearish crossover occurring after a brief overbought condition. RSI dropped from 70+ to under 40, indicating oversold territory but with bearish momentum intact. Bollinger Bands widened during the selloff, with price hitting the lower band multiple times, particularly between 05:45 and 06:45 ET when ETHEURI fell to 3454.21. Volatility appears to be settling slightly as the price stabilizes near 3400-3450, though volume remains elevated on breakdown attempts. A key bearish divergence emerged between the price and volume, with lower highs coinciding with decreasing turnover, indicating possible exhaustion among short-sellers.

The Fibonacci retracement from the swing high at 3691.82 to the low at 3393.21 reveals critical levels: 3436.44 (61.8%) and 3475.63 (38.2%) act as potential turning points. Price remains below the 50-period moving average on the daily chart, with the 100 and 200-period EMAs also bearish. A break below 3401.17 could target 3375.20 and 3354.12, with 3350 representing a psychological floor. Conversely, a rebound above 3526.44 may retest the 3566.28 level for confirmation of a short-term reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the overbought conditions seen earlier in the session, a potential shorting strategy would have triggered an open short signal when RSI closed above 70, likely around 19:45 ET. To evaluate the effectiveness of this signal, a standard exit rule would be to cover the position when RSI closes below 50 or after 7 calendar days, whichever occurs first. The RSI dropped below 50 during the session, suggesting that the short would have been closed before the end of the 24-hour period. This strategy would have captured the bearish momentum while limiting exposure to a short timeframe. A back-test using this rule, applied to the ETHEURI RSI data from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-14, would provide insight into the profitability and frequency of such signals in a live market.