Ethereum (ETHUSD) Market Overview

• ETHUSD fell to a 24-hour low of $4,275.04 after a sharp sell-off in early NY trading.
• Volatility expanded as Bollinger Bands widened, with price near the lower band.
• RSI signaled oversold conditions around 30, but momentum remains bearish.
• Volume spiked during the sell-off, with a large 15-minute candle showing heavy distribution.
• A bearish breakdown below $4,350 may trigger further Fibonacci retracement levels at $4,265 and $4,200.

Ethereum opened at $4,498.15 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at $4,316.77 by 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $4,509.07 and a low of $4,275.04. Total volume traded in the 24-hour period was approximately 38.3 million ETH, with a notional turnover of roughly $1.68 billion, based on average prices and volume data from the 15-minute OHLCV dataset.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart displayed a bearish trend with a notable breakdown below the key support level of $4,450. A large bearish engulfing pattern formed around 19:45–20:00 ET as ETHUSD gapped down from $4,475.09 to $4,439.59. A subsequent bearish wedge and a failed rebound attempt at $4,500 confirmed bearish sentiment. The $4,350 level acted as a short-term floor, with price bouncing modestly afterward, but bearish pressure remained intact. A doji candle at $4,334.04–4,334.04 suggested indecision and a potential short-term reversal or continuation signal depending on volume.

Moving Averages & Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed bearishly (death cross), reinforcing a downward bias. On the daily timeframe, the 200-period moving average acts as a critical long-term support level at $3,950. MACD crossed below the zero line in midday trading, signaling a bearish momentum shift. RSI dipped into oversold territory at ~30 by 15:00 ET, but failed to generate a strong bullish divergence. The oscillator suggested a potential bounce within the next 24 hours if volume confirmed a reversal.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Volatility expanded during the sharp sell-off, with price testing the lower Bollinger Band at $4,275.04. A volatility contraction may follow the sharp move, which could create a retest of $4,350. The price’s proximity to the lower band indicates a possible bounce or a continuation of the bearish trend, depending on whether volume supports a reversal.

Volume & Turnover

The most significant volume spike occurred at 19:45–20:00 ET, with a large 15-minute candle closing at $4,441.79 after opening at $4,452.00. This suggests heavy distribution at that level. However, during the subsequent bounce attempt, volume dried up, indicating a lack of buying interest. The divergences between price and volume suggest a potential exhaustion of the bearish move, but confirmation is needed.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing from $4,509.07 to $4,275.04, the 61.8% retracement level is now at $4,365, and the 78.6% is at $4,418. On a daily basis, the Fibonacci retracement from the peak at $4,509.07 to the low at $4,275.04 places key support at $4,350 and $4,265. A close below $4,265 could signal a deeper correction.

Backtest Hypothesis

The “MACD Death Cross (short) on ETH” strategy, tested between 01-Jan-2022 and 29-Aug-2025, delivered a total return of 26.6% with an annualized return of 10.8%. While the strategy showed promise in capturing bearish momentum, the high drawdown of -42.1% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.30 suggest relatively low risk-adjusted returns. The 7% win rate with small average returns of +0.92% indicates the strategy relies on compounding rather than large wins. Traders should consider adding stop-loss or take-profit parameters, especially given the current bearish divergence and the recent volatility expansion.