Ethereum's ETH Price Stabilizes Above Key Indicator Amid 40% Futures Open Interest Surge

Ethereum's native token, Ether (ETH), has been consolidating between $2,300 and $2,800 for the past 30 days. This sideways phase may be nearing its end, as indicated by several key metrics. The 4-hour chart shows ETH retaining support from the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), and the price is forming a hidden bullish divergence with the relative strength index (RSI). A hidden bullish divergence occurs when the price forms higher lows while indicators like RSI form a lower low, signaling a potential trend breakout.

Ethereum futures open interest (OI) data from CoinGlass shows a 40% increase to $36 billion from $26 billion over the last 30 days. This reflects growing trader confidence amid price consolidation, a pattern that tends to precede breakouts. Additionally, spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have marked their fourth straight week of net inflows, adding 97,800 ETH, pushing total holdings to 3.77 million ETH. This surge in ETF inflows indicates strong institutional interest in Ethereum.

BlackRock, a prominent asset management firm, has been quietly amassing Ethereum, holding 1.5 million ETH ($2.71 billion) in custody and tokenizing assets onchain. The firm has bought $500 million in Ethereum over the past 10 days, reflecting institutional conviction in the altcoin, despite its price being 48% below its all-time high. This significant accumulation by BlackRock further supports the bullish sentiment surrounding Ethereum.

Ether-based investment products led inflows among crypto ETPs last week, attracting $296 million despite a market slowdown as investors await regulatory clarity from the US Federal Reserve. This marks the seventh consecutive week of inflows, the best since President Trump’s 2024 election victory, with Ether ETPs now comprising over 10.5% of total crypto ETP assets under management. This sustained inflow indicates a significant recovery in investor sentiment towards Ethereum.

ETH price is also back above the mid-line of the Gaussian channel, a dynamic market trend indicator. The Gaussian or Normal Distribution Channel plots price movements within a dynamic range, adapting to market volatility. Historically, rallies have occurred when Ethereum surpasses its Gaussian Channel midline. For instance, in 2023, ETH soared 93% to $4,000 following such a crossover, while in 2020, it skyrocketed by 1,820%. With ETH stabilizing above this key indicator at $2,570, technical analysis predicts a potential push toward $3,100 to $3,600 if the momentum holds, supported by the channel’s historical accuracy in forecasting short-term gains.

According to the analyst's forecast, ETH’s Gaussian channel indicator suggests a rally to $3,100 to $3,600 could occur. This forecast is based on the historical performance of Ethereum when it surpasses its Gaussian Channel midline, indicating a potential for significant short-term gains. The current stabilization of ETH above the midline further supports this bullish outlook.