Ethereum/Dai Market Overview

Summary
• Ethereum/Dai (ETHDAI) traded in a bullish channel, breaking above 3350.
• Momentum accelerated in late hours, with volume surging near session highs.
• RSI crossed 60, suggesting potential continuation of the upward move.
• Volatility expanded as price moved outside Bollinger Bands.

Ethereum/Dai (ETHDAI) opened at 3278.4 on November 6 at 12:00 ET and closed at 3356.85 at the same time on November 7. The pair reached a high of 3368.63 and a low of 3277.42 over the 24-hour period. Total volume was 223.93, and total turnover (notional) was approximately 758,307.04 DAI.

Structure & Formations

The price action formed a clear bullish channel, with a key support around 3277–3280 and resistance at 3356–3360. A notable bullish engulfing pattern appeared at 06:00 ET on November 7, confirming the continuation of the upward bias. The price has also been forming higher highs and higher lows, suggesting a strong uptrend. A potential consolidation area may form near 3340, which coincides with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the earlier swing high.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are aligned in a bullish configuration, with price above both. On the daily chart, Ethereum has crossed above the 50-period and 100-period moving averages, indicating a stronger near-term bullish bias. The 200-period MA is still below the price, adding to the case for a continuation of the rally.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line has moved above the signal line in recent hours, confirming the bullish momentum. The histogram is expanding, indicating increasing upward pressure. RSI is currently at 64, which is not overbought yet but suggests that the move could continue unless a pullback occurs. A close below 50 would suggest a potential reversal, but for now, the momentum is in favor of the bulls.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased significantly overnight, with price breaking above the upper Bollinger Band. This suggests heightened buying activity and strong directional momentum. The bands are now widening, which typically precedes a continuation move or a reversal. If the price holds above 3350, it could test the upper boundary again. A retest of the lower band near 3280 would be a key watch level for a potential bounce.

Volume & Turnover

Volume has spiked in the last 12 hours, especially around the key breakout above 3350. The most significant volume occurred at 01:30 ET and again at 05:45 ET, both coinciding with price surges. Notional turnover increased by more than 50% in the last six hours, confirming the bullish move. The volume and price are aligned, suggesting a strong continuation of the current trend. Divergences have not been observed yet.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 61.8% Fibonacci level is at around 3342–3345, which the price has already tested and moved above. A breakdown below that level could trigger a pullback toward 3300–3305. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement is near 3335, and a failure to hold above this level could lead to a retest of the 3277–3280 support zone. The current price is near the 78.6% retracement level of the broader bullish move, suggesting a possible pause or consolidation before a new leg higher.

Backtest Hypothesis

To test the viability of a pattern-based trading approach for Ethereum, we propose using the Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern as a signal. The pattern appeared at 06:00 ET on November 7, coinciding with a strong volume spike. A backtest could be initiated using ETH-DAI (or a close alternative like ETH-USDT), given the unavailability of the direct ETH-DAI data from the backtest database. While small pricing discrepancies may exist due to the use of a different stablecoin, the overall trend, pattern, and timing would remain highly comparable. By applying the pattern as an entry trigger and holding for three days, we could evaluate its effectiveness in a real-world context.