Ethereum/Dai (ETHDAI) Market Overview – 2025-09-05

• ETHDAI opened at 4305.25 and closed at 4301.54, with a 24-hour high of 4486.36 and a low of 4262.36.
• A sharp 15-minute selloff from 4486.36 to 4328.24 suggests a key resistance area around 4486.
• RSI and MACD both indicate potential oversold conditions, with price hovering near the lower Bollinger Band.
• Volume surged during the late ET sell-off but faded as price found support near 4300–4320.
• A bullish engulfing pattern emerged near 4301.54, suggesting possible short-term reversal potential.

Ethereum/Dai (ETHDAI) opened at 4305.25 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at 4301.54 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 4486.36 and a low of 4262.36 during the 24-hour period. Total volume amounted to 63.05, while notional turnover was approximately 274,840 DAI. Price action suggests a volatile session with multiple reversals.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed several key turning points throughout the 24-hour period. A sharp sell-off from 4486.36 to 4328.24 occurred over the course of an hour, suggesting strong resistance at the 4480–4490 cluster. Price then found support between 4300 and 4320, forming a bullish engulfing pattern on the 15-minute chart, indicating potential for a short-term reversal. Key support levels include 4301.54 (current close), 4281.15, and 4262.36. Resistance levels to watch include 4328.14, 4333.94, and the critical 4381.40 level.

Candlestick Patterns

Several candlestick formations stood out, notably a bullish engulfing pattern as price closed near the upper wick of a long bearish candle. A morning star pattern also emerged near 4301.54, further suggesting a short-term bullish bias. A doji at 4321.64 indicates indecision and may serve as a key area for breakout or breakdown.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed multiple times, signaling choppy conditions. The 50-period MA currently sits near 4312.04, acting as a potential floor. The 50-day MA on the daily chart is near 4320.62, suggesting that ETHDAI remains within a larger consolidation pattern.

The 12,26 MACD line crossed above zero near 15:00 ET, indicating growing bullish momentum, while the RSI approached oversold territory near 30, hinting at a possible rebound. The RSI’s failure to close above 40 during the day may suggest bearish exhaustion is not yet over.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed expansion during the sell-off, with price closing near the lower band at 4301.54. This suggests a period of high volatility followed by a possible retracement. A retest of the upper Bollinger Band near 4333.94 could confirm if the consolidation pattern is breaking or if price will return to the middle of the band.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically during the late ET sell-off, reaching a peak of 5.7065 at the close of the 14:45 ET–15:00 ET candle, as price dropped from 4328.24 to 4301.54. This indicates strong selling pressure during that time. However, volume significantly decreased after the 15:00 ET–16:00 ET period, suggesting that short-term bearish momentum may be waning. The volume profile also shows divergence near the 4300–4320 range, which could signal a shift in market sentiment.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 4486.36 to 4262.36 move, key levels to watch include 4380.81 (23.6%), 4336.34 (38.2%), and 4291.86 (50%). These levels could serve as potential support or resistance during the next 24 hours. The 61.8% retracement sits near 4247.38, which could be a hard floor if the bearish trend continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

A possible backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions on bullish engulfing patterns or morning stars near key Fibonacci retracement levels, particularly at the 38.2% and 50% levels. These patterns, combined with RSI nearing oversold territory and MACD divergence, suggest a high-probability trade setup for short-term bullish moves. Stops could be placed below the nearest support level, with targets aligned with the upper Bollinger Band or key resistance levels such as 4333.94 and 4381.40.

The coming 24 hours may see a test of the 4300–4320 support zone as momentum stabilizes. Traders should monitor the 4328.14–4333.94 cluster closely, as a breakout could signal a resumption of the bullish trend. However, bearish sentiment remains embedded, with further downside risk into the 4262.36–4247.38 range, especially if volume does not confirm a reversal. Investors should prepare for both scenarios and maintain tight risk management.