Ethereum's Critical Support Re-test at $4,060 and the Case for Strategic Entry Below $3,800

Ethereum (ETH) is at a pivotal juncture in its price trajectory, with two critical levels—$4,060 and $3,800—emerging as focal points for traders and investors. These levels represent not just technical thresholds but also strategic inflection points for risk-adjusted entry opportunities in a market poised for either consolidation or a renewed rally.

The $4,060 Support: A Crucial Floor for Bullish Continuation

Ethereum's price action in September 2025 has been defined by a tug-of-war around the $4,500–$4,650 resistance zone, with the $4,060 level serving as a critical support floor. According to a report by Blockchain News, this level has been tested multiple times and aligns with the lower Bollinger Band, indicating its psychological significance*Blockchain News*, ^[1]. On-chain data reveals that Ethereum has held above this level despite bearish pressure, including a potential correction toward $3,700–$3,800*On the Node*, ^[2].

A successful retest of $4,060 would validate its role as a dynamic support, potentially triggering a rally toward $4,750–$4,850*CoinPedia*, ^[3]. However, failure to maintain this level could open the door to a deeper correction, with the $4,000 and $3,500 levels under threat*The Currency Analytics*, ^[4]. Technical indicators like the RSI and MACD present mixed signals: while RSI remains neutral, the MACD shows bearish divergence, suggesting weakening bullish momentum*CoinJournal*, ^[5]. Traders are advised to monitor volume and candlestick patterns for confirmation of a breakout or breakdown.

Strategic Entry Below $3,800: A Risk-Adjusted Opportunity

If Ethereum dips below $4,060, the $3,800 level emerges as a strategic entry point for long-term investors. Historical data and Fibonacci retracement levels highlight this zone as a confluence of support, with analysts noting that a clean bounce above the 50-day EMA near $4,250 could signal a recovery phase*OKX Learn*, ^[6]. Whale activity further reinforces this thesis: addresses holding over 10,000 ETH have increased by 50 in the past 30 days, reaching approximately 1,050 addresses*CoinCentral*, ^[7]. This accumulation suggests institutional confidence in Ethereum's long-term fundamentals.

Technical indicators also favor a risk-adjusted entry below $3,800. The RSI at 60.59 is in a favorable range for further upward movement without entering overbought territory*AltcoinBoom*, ^[8], while the MACD's upward crossover indicates strong bullish momentum*Binance Square*, ^[9]. Additionally, Ethereum ETFs have recorded over $1.8 billion in sustained inflows, signaling latent buying power*CoinMarketCap*, ^[10]. For traders, this level offers a defined risk-reward ratio, with a stop-loss below $3,540 (a prior support level) and a target of $4,000–$4,500.

The Fusaka Upgrade: A Catalyst for Renewed Momentum

Beyond technicals, the upcoming Fusaka upgrade on December 3, 2025, is a critical catalyst. This upgrade is expected to double Ethereum's blob capacity, enhancing scalability and supporting Layer-2 adoption*The Currency Analytics*, ^[11]. Analysts project that sustained price action above $4,500 post-upgrade could drive Ethereum toward $5,000 and beyond*On the Node*, ^[12]. For investors entering below $3,800, the Fusaka upgrade represents a tailwind that could amplify returns while mitigating downside risk.

Risk-Adjusted Framework: Balancing Caution and Opportunity

A disciplined approach to entry is essential. Traders should prioritize liquidity dynamics and institutional flows, as ETF inflows and whale accumulation provide real-time signals of market sentiment*OKX Learn*, ^[13]. For example, a 15% price drop in late August triggered $1.5 billion in liquidations, bringing Ethereum close to $4,000*CoinJournal*, ^[14]. This volatility underscores the need for stop-loss orders and position sizing aligned with risk tolerance.

Conclusion

Ethereum's price action in September 2025 is a microcosm of its broader narrative: a battle between bearish corrections and bullish catalysts. The $4,060 support level is a critical psychological floor, while the $3,800 zone offers a risk-adjusted entry for those willing to navigate short-term volatility. With the Fusaka upgrade on the horizon and institutional inflows reinforcing Ethereum's fundamentals, the coming weeks will determine whether the market consolidates or embarks on a new rally. For investors, patience and discipline remain paramount.