Ethereum's Confluence of Bullish Signals: ADX, RSI, and Trendline Breakouts on October 5, 2025

Ethereum's technical landscape ahead of October 5, 2025, is shaping up as one of the most compelling setups in recent memory. A rare alignment of the Average Directional Index (ADX), Relative Strength Index (RSI), and critical trendline breakouts suggests a high-probability continuation of the bullish phase that began in late 2024. This confluence of signals, coupled with structural support from long-term moving averages and network upgrades, positions ETH as a prime candidate for a sustained rally into early 2026.

ADX: A Seven-Year Downtrend Broken

The ADX, a key indicator of trend strength, has pierced a seven-year downtrend on the monthly chart, confirming a shift in Ethereum's long-term trajectory, according to a Coinotag report. This breakout is amplified by the green directional indicator (DI+) crossing above the red DI−, signaling dominant buying pressure, the same Coinotag report notes. Such a move is historically rare-last seen during the 2020 bull run-and underscores the institutional-grade conviction behind Ethereum's current ascent.

RSI: Piercing Multi-Year Resistance

Ethereum's RSI has cleared a multi-year resistance level at 55, a threshold not breached since 2021, as observed by Coinotag. This breakout mirrors patterns observed before the 2020 rally, suggesting renewed market confidence and momentum. While the shorter-term RSI currently hovers at 59-neutral territory-it indicates that Ethereum is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for further upside without immediate correction risks, according to an onthenode analysis.

Trendline Integrity and Structural Support

Ethereum's price action remains firmly above the 21-month Simple Moving Average (SMA) and critical long-term trendlines, preserving the structural integrity of the upswing, as noted by Coinotag. The $4,500 support level has held robustly, with consolidation near $4,533 indicating a potential base for a breakout. A sustained move above $4,650 could trigger a cascade of institutional buying, propelling ETH toward $5,500 by mid-October, a projection echoed in the onthenode analysis.

Market Sentiment and Catalysts

Despite bearish headwinds-such as declining burn rates and ETF outflows-the technical narrative remains overwhelmingly bullish. Ethereum's historical performance in Q4 (average gain of +24% over past years) adds a seasonal tailwind, according to a Coinpedia projection. Moreover, the upcoming Fusaka upgrade, expected to enhance scalability and reduce gas fees, could act as a catalyst for further adoption and price discovery, the onthenode analysis suggests.

Conclusion: A High-Conviction Setup

Ethereum's technicals present a rare alignment of momentum and structure. The ADX confirms a long-term bullish trend, the RSI validates renewed buying pressure, and trendline support remains intact. While short-term volatility is inevitable, the broader picture suggests a high probability of a $5,500–$7,000 range by early 2026. For investors, this is a setup worth monitoring closely-especially as network upgrades and macroeconomic catalysts align with the technical playbook.