Ethereum Classic/Tether Market Overview (ETCUSDT)

• Ethereum Classic/Tether (ETCUSDT) fell to $16.03 after a strong intraday rebound to $17.61, closing at $16.31.
• A bearish engulfing pattern and breakdown below a key support level were observed.
• RSI and MACD confirmed bearish momentum with overbought conditions resolved.
• Volume spiked during the selloff, confirming downside pressure.
• Volatility expanded as price traded within a widening Bollinger Band range.

Ethereum Classic/Tether (ETCUSDT) opened at $16.98 on 2025-10-13 at 12:00 ET-1 and traded as high as $17.61 and as low as $16.03 before closing at $16.31 on 2025-10-14 at 12:00 ET. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 666,372.29 units, with a notional turnover of $10,928,352.93. The pair displayed a bearish bias, with price action breaking below a critical support zone and confirming weak conviction on the upside.

Structure & Formations

Price action on ETCUSDT over the past 24 hours displayed a bearish engulfing pattern around $17.61, followed by a breakdown below a key support level around $17.10. A large bearish candle at $16.16 on the 15-minute chart confirmed a shift in sentiment, with sellers gaining control. A doji formed at $16.80, suggesting indecision before the final leg down. These patterns signal a potential continuation of the downward trend.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below both the 20-EMA and 50-EMA, with the 50-EMA acting as a dynamic resistance. For the daily chart, the 50-EMA at $17.15 was breached during the selloff, and the 200-EMA at $16.85 is currently acting as a key support level. The price appears to be aligning with a bearish bias as all major moving averages trend downward.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line moved below the signal line during the selloff, confirming bearish momentum. The RSI dropped from overbought territory (above 65) to a reading below 30, indicating oversold conditions. This suggests a potential short-term bounce is possible, but given the breakdown in structure and volume confirmation, the bearish bias remains intact for now.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the selloff, with price falling below the lower Bollinger Band for extended periods. The contraction of bands before the selloff suggested a period of consolidation before a breakout. Price remains near the lower band, suggesting continuation of the downward move unless buyers step in to reverse the trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to a high of 75,836.23 units during the sharp decline on the 15-minute chart, with the largest single-volume candle occurring at $16.34. This volume surge confirms the strength of the bearish move. Notional turnover also peaked during this period, with no signs of divergence between price and volume, reinforcing the bearish confirmation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from $17.61 to $16.03, price found resistance at the 61.8% level (~$16.75) before breaking to the 78.6% level (~$16.25). On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level (~$16.90) failed to hold, reinforcing the bearish bias as sellers regained control.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtested short strategy for ETCUSDT from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-14 returned a total of −70.9% with an annualized return of −12.7%, highlighting the bearish nature of the asset over the period. The strategy relied on daily close prices without additional risk control, and trades were exited based on RSI falling below 30. These metrics underscore the limitations of relying solely on RSI for exit signals in a structurally weak environment. The average trade return of −3.37% and a Sharpe ratio of −0.28 indicate poor risk-adjusted performance, with a max drawdown of 74.3% emphasizing the high volatility of ETC. Given the ongoing bearish structure and confirmation from volume and momentum indicators, a similar bearish bias is expected in the near term, though short-term bounces near key support levels could provide entry points for cautious shorts.