Ethereum Classic/Tether Market Overview

• ETCUSDT opened at 19.87 and traded between 19.63 and 20.20 before closing at 19.67, showing a bearish bias.
• Volume spiked in the early session but dropped in the final hours, indicating weakening momentum.
• RSI and MACD both showed bearish signals, suggesting a continuation of downward pressure.
• Price tested a key support area near 19.70 before breaking below, raising concerns of deeper pullbacks.
• Bollinger Bands expanded mid-session, signaling rising volatility and potential for a decisive move.

ETC/USDT closed the 24-hour period at 19.67 with a high of 20.20 and a low of 19.63.
Volume and turnover were concentrated early, with fading activity late in the session.
Bullish reversal signals failed to materialize, as selling pressure dominated the final hours.
Key support levels at 19.70 and 19.60 are now in focus, with potential for further downside.

Ethereum Classic/Tether (ETCUSDT) opened at 19.87 on 2025-10-03 at 16:00 ET and closed at 19.67 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-04, with a high of 20.20 and a low of 19.63. Total volume traded was 153,159.72, while total turnover was approximately $3,047,523. The pair remained under downward pressure throughout the session, with bearish momentum intensifying after midday.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a series of bearish inside bars and hanging man patterns as the session progressed, particularly between 17:15 and 06:00 ET. A key support level was identified at 19.70, where the pair held briefly before breaking below to test 19.60. The 19.94–20.00 range acted as a dynamic resistance zone earlier in the session. A bearish engulfing pattern formed around 17:15 ET when price gapped down from 20.02 to 19.68, signaling a shift in sentiment.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, ETC/USDT closed below both the 20 and 50-period SMAs, indicating bearish dominance. The 20-period SMA crossed below the 50-period SMA during the final hour, confirming a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the price is trading below the 50, 100, and 200-period SMAs, reinforcing a medium-term bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line remained negative throughout most of the session, with the histogram shrinking after 20:00 ET, suggesting waning bearish momentum. RSI fell below 40 after 05:00 ET and dipped into oversold territory around 06:00 ET at 33.9, raising the possibility of a short-term bounce. However, the RSI failed to form a bullish divergence during this period, weakening the case for a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded between 16:45 and 19:00 ET, indicating a period of heightened volatility. Price closed near the lower band in the final hours, signaling potential overselling. A period of contraction occurred from 02:00 to 04:00 ET, suggesting a lull in price movement before the final leg lower.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was highest during the early session, peaking at 55,258.6 units at 17:15 ET. However, volume progressively declined after 20:00 ET, with the final hour (06:00 ET) recording only 1,354.3 units. Turnover mirrored this trend, confirming weaker conviction in the bearish move. The price and volume relationship showed no bullish divergences, supporting the likelihood of continued selling.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 19.63–20.20 swing, key levels at 38.2% (19.94), 50% (19.915), and 61.8% (19.89) were tested but failed to hold. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement of the broader downtrend is near 19.50. A break below 19.60 would trigger a deeper extension toward the 61.8% level at 19.45.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described utilizes a short bias when price breaks below a key Fibonacci support level (e.g., 19.70) and confirms with a bearish engulfing candle on the 15-minute chart. It incorporates RSI below 40 as a secondary confirmation filter and uses a 1.5% stop-loss above the high of the entry candle. A 20-period EMA crossing below the 50-period EMA is used as a trailing exit signal. Given the recent break below 19.70 and bearish confirmation, this strategy would have triggered a short signal late in the session. The setup may now be actionable if the 19.60 level is confirmed as the next support.