Ethereum Classic/Tether (ETCUSDT) Market Overview – 2025-09-26

• ETHEUSDT/ETCUSDT fell 4.6% over 24 hours, with a sharp decline from 18.33 to 17.86 before partial recovery.
• Price action showed a bearish breakdown followed by a potential bullish reversal near 17.90.
• Volume surged during the decline but dropped during the recovery, signaling mixed conviction.
• RSI oversold conditions emerged near 30, hinting at a potential bounce from 17.86–17.90.
• Volatility expanded during the sell-off, with price hovering below the lower Bollinger Band for several hours.

Ethereum Classic/Tether (ETCUSDT) opened at 18.32 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at 17.89 by 12:00 ET, marking a bearish 24-hour session with a low of 17.86 and high of 18.33. Price fell over 4.6% amid heightened volume of 318,783.61 units and a notional turnover of $5,692,406.42. The session featured multiple bearish moves and a tentative bounce in the latter half.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern revealed a strong bearish momentum early in the session, marked by a sharp decline from 18.33 to 17.86. This was followed by a potential bullish reversal cluster around 17.90–17.95, with several candlesticks forming bullish engulfing and hammer formations. A key support level was identified near 17.86–17.90, where the price consolidated before rebounding. Resistance remains at 18.15–18.18. The price structure appears to be forming a potential bullish continuation pattern after the breakdown, but confirmation is pending.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA have both moved lower, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 20SMA crossed below the 50SMA earlier in the session, forming a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50D, 100D, and 200D MAs are all aligned lower, with the 50D pulling away from the 100D and 200D, suggesting a strong downtrend remains intact.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative and crossed below the signal line, signaling continued bearish momentum. The histogram widened during the initial decline but began to contract as the price bounced. RSI reached an oversold level near 30 at 17.86, offering a potential short-term buying opportunity. However, a close above 18.18 may be needed to confirm a reversal in sentiment.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Band width expanded during the early sell-off, reflecting increased volatility. Price spent several hours near the lower band, especially between 17.86 and 17.90. A move above the mid-band could signal a resumption of the bounce, but sustained action above the upper band (18.18–18.21) would be required for a meaningful reversal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the early decline, with over 28,475 units traded at the 23:45 candle, confirming the bearish move. The recovery saw lower volume, with only 4,433.71 units traded during the last candle. This suggests the bullish bounce lacks strong conviction. The divergence between volume and price during the recovery phase signals a potential continuation of the bearish trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

The decline from 18.33 to 17.86 reached key Fibonacci levels: 18.14 (38.2%), 18.05 (50%), and 17.96 (61.8%). Price found support at 17.90–17.86, which overlaps with the 61.8% retracement level. On a daily chart, the broader swing from 18.33 to 17.86 aligns with key Fib levels that may act as pivotal support or resistance in the coming session.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent bearish breakdown and subsequent bounce, a potential backtest strategy could involve entering long at the 17.86–17.90 consolidation range with a stop-loss just below 17.80. A target of 18.15–18.18 could be used as a short-term reversal target. Alternatively, a bearish continuation trade could be entered at 17.80 with a stop above 17.90 and a target at 17.65. Both setups would benefit from confirming volume and momentum indicators.