Ethereum/Argentine Peso Market Overview

• ETHARS opened at 5857865.0 and closed at 5548761.0, showing a bearish close within a 24-hour range of 5870904.0 to 5548761.0.
• A notable bearish engulfing pattern emerged during the 191500–193000 ET period, confirming downward momentum.
• RSI and MACD indicated weakening momentum with bearish divergence.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the late-night sell-off, signaling increased volatility.
• Turnover remained moderate, with most price drops occurring during periods of zero volume, suggesting potential manipulative or automated selling.

24-Hour Summary and Key Metrics

Ethereum/Argentine Peso (ETHARS) opened at 5857865.0 at 12:00 ET-1 and closed at 5548761.0 as of 12:00 ET today. The 24-hour high reached 5870904.0, while the low touched 5400000.0. Total trading volume was 9.19571 ETH, and notional turnover summed to approximately 5,188,588,900 ARS (calculated using closing prices for each candlestick). The price action suggests a strong bearish bias driven by a late-night breakdown.

Structure & Formations

The ETHARS candlestick chart for the last 24 hours reveals a strong bearish bias. A key support level appears to have formed in the 5500000.0–5600000.0 range, with several candles closing near this area. A bearish engulfing pattern was confirmed at 191500–193000 ET, which marked a critical turning point in the downward move. Additionally, a long-legged doji formed at 001500–003000 ET, indicating indecision at the lower end of the range. These patterns suggest potential short-term support retests and may precede a countertrend rally if buyers step in.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs are in a steep downward trajectory, reflecting the bearish momentum. The price closed well below both lines, with no indication of a near-term reversal. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period SMAs are likely in a bearish alignment, reinforcing the 24-hour bearish action. This suggests that the short-term trend remains in a downtrend, with no signs of a near-term reversal.

MACD & RSI

The MACD for ETHARS is in a bearish crossover, with the signal line pulling away from the histogram, indicating weakening momentum. RSI readings have dipped into oversold territory during the final hours of trading, which could indicate a potential rebound. However, the bearish divergence between price and RSI is concerning, suggesting that sellers are maintaining control. A rebound may be short-lived if the 5500000.0 level fails to hold.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands have seen a noticeable widening during the late-night and early-morning hours, coinciding with the sharp selloff. The price has moved outside the lower band multiple times, indicating heightened volatility and a bearish breakout. A contraction in the bands is unlikely in the next 24 hours unless there is a strong countertrend rally, which seems improbable given the low volume and bearish indicators.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked moderately during key bearish candle formations, particularly in the late-night and early-morning hours. However, there were several instances of price movement without corresponding volume, such as during the 163000–170000 ET period. This divergence could indicate manipulative or algorithmic selling. Turnover increased during the most liquid hours, but overall, the market remains under-liquidated, suggesting a lack of institutional activity or interest in the pair.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 24-hour swing from 5870904.0 to 5548761.0, the 38.2% level is around 5705000.0, and the 61.8% level is near 5640000.0. The price has bounced briefly at these levels in the past 24 hours but failed to hold, indicating that the 5500000.0–5600000.0 range is the next critical area to monitor. A break below this could extend the decline to the next Fibonacci level around 5370000.0.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves entering short positions when the 50-period SMA crosses below the 20-period SMA on the 15-minute chart, combined with a bearish engulfing pattern and RSI in overbought territory. The initial stop-loss is placed at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, and the take-profit is set at the 61.8% level or the next key support level. Given the recent behavior of ETHARS, this strategy aligns well with the observed price action and technical indicators. A potential short entry could be considered near 5550000.0 if the 5500000.0 support fails.