Ethereum's 74% Supply Held at Loss, Bearish Outlook Persists

Ethereum is currently facing significant challenges as on-chain data reveals that 74% of its supply is held at a loss. This situation indicates a weak market structure and growing sell-side pressure. The data from IntoTheBlock shows that 73.97% of the ETH supply, approximately 106.75 million coins, is now held at a loss, while only 24.07% of ETH remains in profit. This imbalance suggests a bearish outlook, with few holders in profitable positions and many still anchored above the current trading range.

Nearly 45% of Ethereum’s supply, amounting to 66.29 million ETH, was purchased between $2,194 and $2,571. This range, held by 12.28 million wallets, has an average cost basis of $2,381.85, forming a strong resistance zone. On the other hand, support appears fragile. Only 2.83 million ETH, or 1.96% of the supply, is currently “At the Money,” purchased between $1,786.34 and $1,791.11, spread across 95,470 addresses. This signals weak support at current levels, and without strong buyer conviction around $1,789, the price could drift freely in either direction. Until stronger demand materializes, the price could drift, but gravity favors the bears.

The persistent $2,200–$2,580 resistance wall has been reaffirmed in successive data runs, raising questions about its strength. Is this resistance zone truly unbreakable, or is it more of a psychological barrier? Supporting the bearish view is Ethereum’s Exchange Netflow data, which shows a marked trend of large-scale withdrawals. There have been outflows exceeding 300,000 ETH in February and March 2025, including spikes of 400K ETH on the 17th of February and 409K ETH on the 7th of March. These withdrawals aligned with steep price drops, suggesting investors removed assets to avoid selling into weakness. While such withdrawals can indicate long-term holding, in a falling market, they also reflect a low appetite for spot exposure. In contrast, inflows have been rare and weak, with a 166,065 ETH inflow during the January-end failing to reverse price momentum, signaling limited buying interest.

Metrics from Santiment show similar signals. The Network Realized Profit/Loss chart shows consecutive realized losses, such as $922.48 million on the 3rd of February and $788.36 million on the 7th of March. Profits mostly appeared in early January, peaking at $580.15 million on the New Year’s. The NRPL has remained negative since then, aligning with the GIOM reading that most holders are underwater. Analysts call it capitulation behavior, reflecting reduced short-term confidence. Ethereum remains under pressure with nearly 74% of its supply held at a loss, mostly between $2,200 and $2,580. This zone forms a major resistance barrier, reinforced by weak support at current prices, continued exchange outflows, and persistent realized losses. While the data confirms strong overhead resistance, it doesn’t guarantee it will hold. A significant breakout is still possible if met with enough volume and demand. Until then, Ethereum is likely to stay stuck below $2,200, with upside capped by seller pressure and limited buyer interest.