Ethereum's 60% Price Surge: Is Now the Time to Buy?

Ethereum (ETH) has long been a focal point for investors navigating the volatile crypto market, but as 2025 draws to a close, the question of whether now is the time to buy has taken on renewed urgency. With a potential 60% price surge on the horizon, the interplay of technical strength, declining exchange supply, and institutional accumulation offers a compelling case for both optimism and caution.

Technical Strength: A Mixed but Cautiously Optimistic Outlook

Ethereum's technical indicators paint a nuanced picture. As of November 26, 2025, the RSI for ETH surged above 70, signaling overbought conditions and hinting at a potential pullback. However, the MACD line remained above the signal line, suggesting bullish momentum. Meanwhile, key support levels have held firm, with the $3,050 threshold acting as a critical floor for stabilization.

The moving average landscape is equally telling. The 50-day SMA ($3,877.09) has dipped below the 200-day SMA ($3,367.45), a bearish crossover. Yet, Ethereum's proximity to the 200-week SMA ($3,000) and the 50-week SMA ($3,500) suggests structural support that could catalyze a rebound. Analysts are closely watching the $3,200 resistance level, with a breakout seen as pivotal for a sustained recovery.

The Fear & Greed Index, currently at 10, underscores the market's bearish sentiment. However, this extreme fear could paradoxically signal a turning point, as historical patterns often show capitulation phases preceding rallies.

Declining Exchange Supply: A Structural Tailwind

On-chain metrics reveal a significant contraction in Ethereum's exchange supply. Exchange balances have fallen nearly 18% year-to-date as assets migrate into ETFs and Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs). This decline in circulating supply mirrors Bitcoin's "store-of-value" narrative and could act as a floor for ETH's price.

Institutional buying, however, has sharply declined. Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) purchases dropped by 81% in November 2025, with daily net buying turning negative at -5,520 ETH. This shift reflects reduced purchasing power for smaller institutions and the rise of alternative assets. Yet, Ethereum valuation models from ETHVal suggest the asset is undervalued, with a composite fair value of $4,535.1-implying a 60% upside if this estimate holds.

Institutional Accumulation: A Ray of Hope

Despite the decline in institutional buying, U.S. spot ETH ETFs recorded net inflows of $76.55 million in early December 2025. This indicates that while large-scale accumulation has waned, retail and institutional investors remain cautiously optimistic. The ETH/BTC pair's recent strength-trading at 0.03442 BTC-also suggests Ethereum is outperforming Bitcoin after a prolonged slump.

Technical patterns further bolster this narrative. Ethereum is forming a falling wedge, a bullish continuation pattern with a potential price target of $4,150 if the pattern holds. A breakout above $3,200 could trigger a cascade of buying pressure, aligning with the ETHVal fair value estimate.

The Verdict: A Calculated Bet

Ethereum's technical indicators, while mixed, suggest a market poised for a potential rebound. The declining exchange supply and valuation gap provide a structural floor, while ETF inflows hint at renewed institutional interest. However, the bearish RSI and ADX readings (42.81) underscore the risks of a further pullback.

For investors, the key lies in timing. Holding Ethereum above $3,050 and breaking through $3,200 resistance could signal a shift in momentum. Those with a medium-term horizon might consider dollar-cost averaging into the asset, while short-term traders should monitor the Fear & Greed Index and MACD for directional cues.

In a market defined by extremes, Ethereum's 60% price surge remains a plausible scenario-but one that demands patience, discipline, and a keen eye on the interplay of technical, on-chain, and institutional dynamics.