Ethereum +6.7% in 7 Days Amid ETF Progress and Whale Accumulation

On OCT 28 2025, Ethereum (ETH) dipped by 0.12% within 24 hours to reach $4118.2, but rose by 6.7% within 7 days. Over the past month, it fell by 0.72%, and over the past year, it surged by 23.3%. This week, Ethereum drew attention due to key developments in ETF approvals, institutional positioning, and whale activity.

BlackRock’s Ethereum Staking ETF application is now under broader SEC review, increasing the likelihood of regulatory clarity and institutional Ethereum exposure. The deadline to finalize the staking feature is October 30. Analysts see this as a potential bullish catalyst for Ethereum's price, should the application succeed in gaining approval.

MegaETH’s ICO, launching on Sonar, is expected to drive momentum in the Ethereum Layer 2 space. The English auction-style offering, which began October 27, allows participants to commit up to $186,282 each, with a total valuation cap of $999 million. This approach aims to ensure fair price discovery and prevent speculative overvaluation. The ICO signals growing interest in scalable blockchain solutions and reflects maturing market dynamics for Ethereum-based projects.

Institutional and whale activity further highlights Ethereum’s ongoing appeal. Pal increased its Ethereum long position by 200 ETH in a ten-minute span, raising its total long exposure to approximately $18.43 million. Meanwhile, the so-called “100% Win Rate Whale” expanded its Ethereum holdings by 100 ETH, adding to a total long of 47,548 ETH valued at around $196 million. These movements indicate a measured but persistent accumulation strategy by large-scale investors.

A new player in the Ethereum space, the "Buddy" trader, also increased long exposure by 100 ETH, pushing the total long position to $16.28 million. This reflects sustained demand for Ethereum derivatives and growing optimism among bullish traders. Analysts note that such incremental accumulation can act as a leading indicator of future price resilience, particularly when accompanied by increased open interest and liquidity inflows.

Backtest Hypothesis

To evaluate the potential for Ethereum's continued upside, a backtesting hypothesis is proposed based on the technical indicators used in Ethereum price analysis. The strategy centers on a “buy on 5% surge” rule—triggered when today’s close is at least 5% higher than yesterday’s close. The signal is implemented by entering the next day’s open, with the objective of capturing follow-through buying momentum.

The universe under test will include Ethereum as the sole ticker, given its significance in institutional and whale activity. A fixed holding period of five trading days is proposed, with an exit rule selling on the fifth day regardless of price movement. Additionally, a stop-loss of 3% is included to limit downside risk, and a take-profit threshold of 10% is set to lock in gains early. The strategy will be tested from January 1, 2022, to October 28, 2025, using equal capital allocation per trade and a maximum of one concurrent position.

This approach aims to isolate Ethereum’s response to short-term buying surges, while accounting for volatility and risk control. If the strategy generates consistent returns across multiple cycles, it could reinforce the narrative that Ethereum is responding well to institutional and whale-driven momentum.