Ethereum's $4,100 Crucible: $1B Liquidation Risk Looms as Support Wavers

Ethereum (ETH) faces a critical juncture as its price approaches the $4,100 support level, with data indicating that a drop below this threshold could trigger a surge in long liquidation pressure totaling $1.012 billion on major centralized exchanges (CEXs). This figure, derived from Coinglass data, represents modeled intensity thresholds rather than precise contract values but highlights the concentration of liquidity at risk across exchange order books . Analysts and market observers have underscored the significance of this level, with some warning that a breakdown could catalyze further declines toward $3,700–$3,800, exacerbating market-wide sell-offs.

Recent price movements have already demonstrated heightened volatility. Over the past 24 hours, Ethereum has experienced a 7% drop to $4,152, breaching the $4,200 support level and contributing to over $1.7 billion in altcoin liquidations . Coinglass data reveals that Ethereum long liquidations alone reached $506 million in this period, outpacing Bitcoin’s $288 million in long liquidations . The cryptocurrency’s performance has also drawn correlations with traditional assets, including gold and Coinbase (COIN) stock, with some analysts suggesting that ETH’s trajectory mirrors COIN’s price action .

The liquidation risk intensifies as Ethereum approaches key psychological and technical levels. If the price slips further below $4,100, cascading liquidations could amplify downward pressure, according to multiple analysts. Michael van de Poppe, a crypto analyst, noted that breaking $4,100 could open the door to a decline toward $3,941, with additional selling pressure potentially pushing the price to $3,400–$3,600 . Similarly, Andrew Kang of Mechanism Capital warned that prolonged liquidation waves could drive ETH toward $3,200–$3,600, with total liquidation exposure reaching $5 billion .

Institutional activity adds another layer of complexity. Bitmine Technologies, a major Ethereum treasury firm, recently added 264,378 ETH to its reserves, bringing its total holdings to 2,416,000 coins—accounting for over 2% of the Ethereum supply . The firm’s combined crypto and cash reserves now exceed $11.4 billion, signaling continued institutional confidence despite short-term volatility. Conversely, ETF outflows and whale movements have introduced selling pressure. ETH spot ETFs recorded $59.3 million in outflows, while a large whale transferred 12,202 ETH (worth $54 million) to exchanges, hinting at profit-taking after a recent rally .

The broader market environment remains fragile, with Bitcoin’s decline to $115,000 amplifying altcoin declines. Ethereum’s role as the second-largest cryptocurrency means its performance often influences the broader market, and a sharp breakdown could trigger a wider sell-off. Technical indicators, including the Relative Strength Index (RSI) nearing oversold territory, suggest potential rebounds, but immediate support zones at $3,800–$4,000 remain critical . Analysts emphasize that while Ethereum’s long-term potential remains intact, short-term stability hinges on holding key levels to avoid a cascading liquidity crisis.

Source: [1] Ethereum Price Crash By 6% Leads Crypto Market Liquidations, … (https://themarketperiodical.com/2025/09/22/ethereum-price-crash-by-6-leads-crypto-market-liquidations-whats-next/)

[2] Ethereum Price Crash: Drop Below $4,000 Could … (https://coinpedia.org/news/eth-price-crash-drop-below-4000-could-trigger-1-billion-in-liquidations/)

[3] Ethereum Liquidation Alert: $1.868B Short Pressure Above $4,400 … (https://en.coinotag.com/breakingnews/ethereum-liquidation-alert-1-868b-short-pressure-above-4400-vs-2-048b-long-cascade-below-4200-on-major-cexs/)

[4] Ethereum drops 7% below $4,200 amid liquidations, … (https://invezz.com/news/2025/09/22/ethereum-drops-7-below-4200-amid-liquidations-rising-macro-pressure/)

[5] If Ethereum falls below $4100, the cumulative long liquidation intensity on mainstream CEX will reach 1.012 billion (https://www.chaincatcher.com/en/article/2205423)