Is Ethereum's $2,800 Dip a High-Probability Buy Zone Amid Wave 3 Potential?

Ethereum's price action near the $2,800 level has ignited intense debate among investors and analysts. This critical juncture, historically a linchpin for market sentiment, now faces renewed scrutiny as on-chain metrics and technical indicators suggest a potential inflection point. With Ethereum staking volumes hitting record highs and BlackRock filing for a staked Ethereum ETF, the interplay between bearish pressure and bullish catalysts demands a granular analysis. This article evaluates whether the $2,800 dip represents a high-probability buy zone, leveraging technical and on-chain momentum data to assess Wave 3 implications.

Technical Analysis: A Battle for $2,800

Ethereum's immediate support structure is anchored at $2,800, a level that has historically acted as both a floor and a catalyst for reversals according to analysis. If this level holds, the next key resistance lies at $2,890, with a broader barrier at $2,950 according to analysis. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits at 39.89, signaling oversold conditions, while the MACD line remains below the signal line, indicating bearish momentum. This divergence between momentum and price suggests a potential short-term correction.

Elliott Wave analysis adds nuance to this narrative. Recent price action suggests Ethereum has entered Wave 2, with analysts positing that a successful Wave 3 move could target $8,800. Fibonacci retracement levels further highlight critical zones: the 0.618 level at $2,748 and the 0.786 level at $2,147 according to analysis. These levels, if tested, could validate a consolidation phase before a larger bullish move. Meanwhile, the CME gap between $2,850 and $3,000 remains a focal point; its closure could signal a breakout or a retest.

On-Chain Momentum: Whales vs. Institutions

On-chain data reveals a tug-of-war between retail and institutional forces. While Ethereum ETF outflows reached $1.5 billion in November 2025, driven by forced selling from digital asset treasuries (DATs) and share buybacks according to reports, large whale wallets have been accumulating ETH. This divergence-retail selling versus whale accumulation-points to a classic accumulation phase according to analysis.

Key metrics like the Mayer Multiple (market value to realized value ratio) dropping below 1 further reinforce this thesis according to analysis. Historically, such levels have coincided with major bottoms, as seen in 2018 and 2020 according to data. Additionally, the Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio and Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) metrics suggest Ethereum is entering a zone of undervaluation. Reduced long liquidation volume and increasing short positions also hint at a potential short-term rebound.

Wave 3 Implications and Institutional Catalysts

The interplay between technical and on-chain signals raises the question: Is Ethereum primed for a Wave 3 rally? Institutional interest provides a compelling answer. With Ethereum staking hitting 33 million tokens, the asset's utility as a yield-generating vehicle is gaining traction. BlackRock's new staked Ethereum ETF filing underscores this trend, potentially attracting a new wave of capital.

Cycle theory further validates the $2,800 level as a pivotal threshold. A sustained close above this level could trigger a multi-week recovery, targeting $3,000 and eventually $4,000. However, this scenario hinges on maintaining above $2,800; a breakdown could see further declines to $2,100–$2,160. The MACD's recent crossover above the signal line adds technical credibility to the bullish case, though volatility remains a wildcard.

Conclusion: A Calculated Buy Zone

Ethereum's $2,800 dip presents a high-probability buy zone for investors willing to navigate near-term volatility. The confluence of oversold technical conditions, whale accumulation, and institutional catalysts creates a compelling case for a Wave 3 move. However, prudence is warranted: A breakdown below $2,800 could extend the downtrend to $2,720 and beyond. For those with a medium-term horizon, the $2,800–$2,890 range offers a strategic entry point, provided on-chain metrics and ETF flows confirm a reversal.

As the market tests this critical level, the coming weeks will be pivotal. Ethereum's ability to hold $2,800 and retest $2,890 could signal the start of a broader bullish phase, aligning with both historical patterns and emerging institutional demand.