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Ethereum's recent surge past the $2,700 mark has triggered significant market reactions, including a short squeeze that resulted in over $50 million in liquidations on a major exchange. This breakout was initially seen as a bullish signal, but underlying indicators suggest a more complex situation. Rising exchange reserves and notable whale outflows indicate that the momentum behind Ethereum's price increase may be waning.
The short squeeze was sparked by Ethereum's price piercing through the $2,700 resistance level, which acted as a magnet for stop-loss orders. However, this bullish move was quickly followed by a significant inflow of over 144,000 ETH into derivatives exchange reserves. Such inflows are typically associated with renewed short positioning rather than a continuation of an upward trend, raising concerns about the sustainability of the recent price surge.
Another concerning development is Ethereum's decoupling from Bitcoin. Historically, Ethereum and Bitcoin have moved in near-lockstep, with a correlation often above 0.7. However, this relationship has significantly weakened, with Ethereum's 1-year correlation with Bitcoin plummeting to just 0.05 as of late May. This decoupling disrupts traditional portfolio strategies and coincides with Ethereum's relative underperformance during Bitcoin's recent rally.
The divergence between Ethereum and Bitcoin is eroding market confidence. Without the support of synchronized Bitcoin rallies, Ethereum's ecosystem is struggling to maintain growth. Retail participation appears to be thinning, and leading Layer 2 solutions like Optimism, Arbitrum, and Polygon have failed to gain significant traction in 2025. This decoupling risks isolating Ethereum during bull cycles, as forecasting models that relied on Bitcoin's directionality are losing their predictive power.
While Ethereum may be evolving into a more autonomous asset driven by internal fundamentals, the current decoupling seems more like a temporary wind rather than a sign of long-term evolution. The market is left to reassess the sustainability of Ethereum's recent price movements and the broader implications for the cryptocurrency ecosystem.

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