Ethereum as a $10–$20 Trillion Global Trust Infrastructure: Reframing the Network as a Public Good and Valuing Its Trust Surplus

Ethereum's evolution from a speculative asset to a foundational infrastructure for global economic coordination is reshaping how we value blockchain technology. No longer just a platform for decentralized applications (dApps), Ethereum is increasingly framed as a global public good-a neutral, trust-minimizing settlement layer that digitizes value transfer and reduces systemic friction. This reframing is critical for understanding its potential to reach a $10–$20 trillion valuation, driven by its trust surplus and role in industrializing trust.

The Trust Surplus Framework: Beyond Traditional Metrics

Traditional valuation models for Ethereum have fixated on metrics like transaction throughput, gas fees, or token price volatility. But a new framework introduced by blockchain thinker William Mougayar shifts the lens to captured value, flow value, and trust surplus.

• Captured Value: This includes measurable financial metrics such as staking yields and transaction fees. Post-merge, Ethereum's staking yields have grown significantly, with over 4.10 million ETH (worth $17.66 billion) held in corporate treasuries as of 2025.
• Flow Value: This captures the broader economic impact of dApps, including DeFi platforms and NFT marketplaces. Ethereum hosts over 50% of the $400 billion stablecoin market and powers 4,000+ dApps, enabling global value transfers.
  
  
• Trust Surplus: The most revolutionary concept, trust surplus quantifies the economic savings from eliminating third-party verification. Traditional trust systems-insurance, legal frameworks, and auditing-cost over $9 trillion annually. Ethereum's "Trustware" infrastructure digitizes these systems, reducing friction and enabling a compounding "trust dividend" as adoption scales.

Ethereum as a Public Good: Funding the Infrastructure

For Ethereum to fulfill its role as a global public good, its open-source infrastructure must be sustainably funded. A proposed roadmap outlines a three-phase strategy:
1. Community Listening: Identify infrastructure needs and community values.
2. Transparency Dashboard: Visualize funding contributions across the ecosystem.
3. Revenue Commitments: Encourage L2s, DAOs, and dApps to allocate 2% of their revenue to fund critical infrastructure.

This approach avoids the governance conflicts seen in other ecosystems and aligns with Ethereum's ethos of cultural pluralism and financial stability.

Economic Impact and Market Projections

Recent case studies underscore Ethereum's growing economic footprint. Institutional adoption has surged, with Ethereum ETFs attracting $29.22 billion in net inflows since July 2024. Technological upgrades like EIP-4844 and Dencun have slashed Layer 2 transaction costs by 94%, enhancing throughput while preserving security.

Market projections are equally compelling. A 2025 research framework suggests Ethereum could achieve a near-term valuation of $2–6 trillion, with long-run potential reaching $10–$20 trillion. This is fueled by its role in tokenizing real-world assets (e.g., real estate) and its dominance in decentralized finance. By 2029, Ethereum's market size is projected to grow to $92.77 billion at a 16.6% CAGR, driven by regulatory clarity and enterprise adoption.

Trust Surplus in Action: Arbitrage and MEV

Ethereum's trust surplus isn't just theoretical-it's already reshaping financial markets. The Proposer-Builder Separation (PBS) has turned arbitrage into a sealed-bid auction for block inclusion, with builders capturing over 90% of MEV profits by early 2025. During market turmoil in August 2024, a single builder secured $3.5 million in rewards, highlighting Ethereum's role as the most lucrative arena for arbitrage.

Challenges and the Path Forward

Despite its momentum, Ethereum faces challenges. Regulatory uncertainty and geopolitical risks (e.g., trade wars) could disrupt supply chains for hardware and energy. However, institutional adoption-bolstered by JPMorgan and BlackRock's $30 billion BUIDL fund-reinforces its resilience.

Conclusion: A $10–$20 Trillion Investment Thesis

Ethereum's valuation as a global trust infrastructure hinges on its ability to industrialize trust and reduce systemic friction. By reframing it as a public good and quantifying its trust surplus, investors can better appreciate its long-term potential. With a $9 trillion annual savings in trust costs, a maturing DeFi ecosystem, and institutional tailwinds, Ethereum is not just a $10–$20 trillion asset-it's the bedrock of a digital world economy.