Ethena USDe/Tether Market Overview 2025-09-26

• Ethena USDe/Tether (USDEUSDT) rose from 0.9996 to 1.0002 during a key 15-minute breakout in the early hours of 26 September.
• Momentum picked up after 04:30 ET with positive RSI divergence and price above 20-period moving average.
• Volatility increased in the final hours, with price hovering near upper Bollinger Bands during the last 3 hours of the day.
• Notional turnover surged to over $10.9 million in the final hour, confirming bullish sentiment and strong market interest.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed at 0.9993–1.0001 and a potential 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level was tested but rejected.

Ethena USDe/Tether (USDEUSDT) opened at 0.9996 on 25 September and closed at 1.0001 on 26 September, trading between 0.9983 and 1.0002 over the 24-hour period. The pair posted a modest but encouraging close. Trading volume totaled 213.28 million units, with a notional turnover of approximately $109.2 million.

The 15-minute chart shows a key breakout from a consolidating range between 0.9992 and 0.9996 after 04:30 ET. This was followed by a sharp move up to 1.0001, forming a bullish engulfing pattern. Price has since moved above its 20- and 50-period moving averages, suggesting short-term bullish momentum. The 50-period line is currently at 0.9997 and has not yet crossed the 20-period line, but appears to be converging.

MACD remains positive, with a rising histogram, indicating that the bullish momentum is gaining strength. RSI is approaching overbought territory at 62–64, though a divergence suggests that bears are starting to counterbalance the move. Price remains within Bollinger Bands, near the upper band, and volatility has increased as a result of the late-day rally.

Fibonacci retracement levels for the 0.9992–1.0001 swing indicate a potential 61.8% retracement at 0.9996, which was tested but rejected in the last hour. This suggests that sellers may be entering at this level. On the daily chart, the 50- and 200-period moving averages are close to 0.9995–0.9998, which could act as support if the rally fails to consolidate above 1.0001. Investors should monitor these levels for confirmation of a broader trend reversal.

Looking ahead, USDEUSDT may face short-term resistance near 1.0002–1.0003. A sustained close above this level would signal stronger conviction in the bullish phase. Conversely, a pullback to 0.9995–0.9996 could provide a re-entry opportunity. Given the recent surge in volume and RSI divergence, a consolidation phase is likely before a breakout attempt.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve using the bullish engulfing pattern observed at 0.9993–1.0001 as a trigger for long entries, with a stop-loss placed just below the pattern’s low at 0.9993. Targets could be set using Fibonacci levels, particularly the 127.2% extension at 1.0006. The strategy would also include a trailing stop if price breaks above the 20-period moving average and MACD remains positive. Given the late-day strength and volume surge, this pattern has a strong probability of unfolding in the next 24 hours, though traders should remain cautious if RSI enters overbought territory or volatility subsides.