Ethena Sees 19.2% Retail Investor Stake Increase Amid Whale Reductions

Whales have reduced their holdings by 3.6% over the past month, while mid-tier and retail investors have increased their stakes by 19.2% and 10.4% respectively. This shift suggests that smaller investors are more confident in Ethena's prospects, but a sustainable price movement typically requires large buyers to drive momentum beyond technical barriers.

Exchange outflows have exceeded inflows, indicating a trend of accumulation. Spot outflows reached $10.5 million against $7.8 million in inflows, which often signals growing holder conviction and reduced sell pressure. If this pattern continues, it could tighten supply and set the stage for a rally, assuming overall market sentiment remains favorable.

Derivatives data also show rising interest in Ethena. Open interest in ENA rose 10.5% to $484.5 million, suggesting traders expect a major price move. Should the price clear channel resistance, short positions may face a squeeze, driving a swift run higher. However, elevated open interest can also magnify swings in both directions.

Ethena has traded within a descending channel since late 2024, with each rally halted near the upper trendline. Currently, the price is testing resistance at $0.36, just above the 100-day moving average of $0.3479. A daily close above $0.37 could clear the path to $0.45, but traders must watch for volume spikes to push past $0.41, where supply clusters sit.

Data show that 5.5% of wallets hold unrealized gains, 25.4% sit at a loss, and 69.1% hover around breakeven between $0.34 and $0.41. Investors often sell into rallies to lock in gains or cut losses. Consequently, any breakout must overcome this layer of selling pressure before advancing.

Bulls must push the price above the channel and break the breakeven zone to target $0.45 and beyond. Absent renewed whale support, success depends on steady accumulation, clear volume confirmation, and a clean break past $0.41. Until then, traders may face choppy action around current levels.

From a technical standpoint, Ethena is consolidating within a short-term bullish channel. A breakout above the $0.3750 resistance could trigger renewed momentum toward the $0.42–$0.50 zone, while failure to hold above $0.35 might result in a retest of support near $0.32. Volume and volatility remain elevated, suggesting active trading interest and potential for sharp moves in either direction.

Fundamentally, Ethena is gaining attention as a DeFi-native synthetic dollar protocol. Its core product, USDe (the “Internet Bond”), offers yield-generating capabilities tied to DeFi markets without reliance on traditional banks. Ethena also boasts over $5.89 billion in total value locked, underscoring significant user engagement and capital allocation within its ecosystem.