Ethena (ENA): Whale Activity and RSI Divergence Signal Strategic Entry Opportunity

Ethena (ENA) has emerged as a focal point for both on-chain analysts and technical traders in September 2025, with whale activity and RSI divergence painting a nuanced picture of potential market reversals. While large investors continue to accumulate the token, technical indicators suggest a critical juncture where strategic entry opportunities may arise for investors willing to navigate short-term volatility.

Whale Accumulation: A Bullish On-Chain Signal

On-chain data reveals a surge in whale activity, with large holders (wallets holding 1–10 million ENA) increasing their balances by 45.59 million ENA ($28.2 million) in the lead-up to September 2025, according to a CoinJournal report. A single whale address deposited 44 million ENA ($30.56 million) into Binance over two weeks, averaging $0.69 per token, as flagged in a Blockchain.News alert. This accumulation, coupled with an 8% weekly increase in whale holdings, signals institutional-level confidence in ENA's long-term trajectory, per a ChainAffairs analysis.

Notably, over 1.07 billion ENA tokens have moved off centralized exchanges into private wallets, reducing immediate selling pressure and aligning with bullish on-chain patterns like rising active addresses and transaction volume, as noted in the ChainAffairs analysis. While whale distributions (e.g., 5 million ENA to Binance) have raised concerns about short-term selling pressure in the CoinJournal report, the net inflows into multisig wallets and private storage suggest a broader narrative of strategic positioning.

RSI Divergence: A Cautionary Technical Signal

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for ENA presents a mixed outlook. The 1-hour RSI of 81 indicates overbought conditions in the very short term, based on RSI Hunter data, while the 7-day RSI of 56 suggests the asset is approaching neutral territory (RSI Hunter). However, a critical bearish divergence has emerged: price hits higher highs while RSI forms lower highs, signaling weakening upward momentum, according to a StockCharts analysis. This divergence, a well-documented precursor to reversals, raises the possibility of a near-term correction.

ENA's price currently hovers around $0.7722, with key resistance at $0.82 and support at $0.75 (RSI Hunter). A breakout above $0.82 could propel the token toward $1.00, validating the cup-and-handle pattern observed in recent charts, as discussed in the ChainAffairs analysis. Conversely, a drop below $0.75 may trigger a bearish shift, with $0.51 as the next critical support level, according to the CoinJournal report.

The backtest results reveal a critical limitation: no valid "Cup & Handle breakout" events were identified for ENA in historical data from 2022 to 2025. This likely reflects either insufficient price history (ENA's limited trading lifespan) or overly strict pattern-detection criteria. While the cup-and-handle pattern is visually apparent in recent charts (ChainAffairs analysis), its historical reliability remains unproven for ENA. Investors should treat this pattern as a hypothesis rather than a validated strategy, given the lack of empirical evidence from past breakouts.

Strategic Entry: Balancing Whale Confidence and Technical Uncertainty

The interplay between whale accumulation and RSI divergence creates a compelling case for strategic entry. While on-chain data underscores growing institutional interest-bolstered by Ethena's USDe stablecoin ecosystem and rising transaction volume (ChainAffairs analysis)-technical indicators highlight a consolidation phase. The ADX of 10.7 confirms a weak trend, suggesting ENA is in a trading range (RSI Hunter).

For investors, this dynamic presents two scenarios:1. Bullish Case: Whale inflows and a successful breakout above $0.82 could drive ENA toward $1.20, a 50% rally from current levels, per the CoinJournal report.2. Bearish Case: RSI divergence and a breakdown below $0.75 may lead to a 27% decline to $0.51 (RSI Hunter).

The optimal entry point lies in monitoring key resistance levels and confirming volume surges. A retest of $0.75 with strong OBV (On-Balance Volume) could signal a bullish reversal, while a sustained drop below $0.60 would invalidate the current thesis (ChainAffairs analysis).

Conclusion

Ethena (ENA) sits at a crossroads, where whale activity and technical indicators converge to highlight both opportunity and risk. While large investors continue to bet on the token's long-term potential, RSI divergence warns of near-term volatility. For disciplined traders, this duality offers a chance to capitalize on a potential breakout-provided they remain vigilant to evolving on-chain and technical signals.