Is Ethena (ENA) Poised for a 70% Rally Following a Key Falling Wedge Breakout?

Ethena (ENA), the synthetic dollar stablecoin protocol, has emerged as a focal point for both retail and institutional investors in late 2025. With its price consolidating within a tightening falling wedge pattern and a surge in whale activity, the question on many traders' minds is whether ENA is primed for a 70% rally. This analysis combines technical price action and institutional developments to build a compelling case for near-term momentum.

Technical Price Action: A Classic Bullish Setup

ENA's price chart reveals a textbook falling wedge pattern, a bullish continuation formation characterized by converging trendlines and a narrowing price range. The current price of $0.212 sits above a critical support zone of $0.20–$0.205, which has historically acted as a strong demand area according to technical analysis. A breakout above the upper trendline-currently in the $0.222–$0.225 range-would validate the pattern and signal a potential move toward $0.38, a level last tested in early 2025 according to market data.

Key technical indicators reinforce this thesis. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 59 suggests strong buying pressure, while the price reestablishing above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) indicates a shift in momentum to the bullish side according to technical analysis. Analysts caution that a sustained close above $0.225 is essential to confirm the breakout and avoid temporary consolidation. If successful, the wedge's projected target of $0.38 implies a 70% upside from current levels.

Institutional Interest: Whale Activity and Credibility Boosts

Beyond technicals, institutional and whale activity has added fuel to ENA's bullish narrative. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of Bybit, has been a notable mover in the ENA ecosystem. Recent on-chain data reveals Hayes sold $5.53 million worth of ETH and reallocated proceeds into DeFi protocols like Ethena, Lido, and Pendle according to on-chain reports. This strategic shift underscores confidence in yield-generating platforms, with Ethena's synthetic dollar (USDe) and staked dollar (USDtb) tokens offering attractive risk-adjusted returns.

Further, Hayes transferred 6.27 million ENA tokens ($1.28 million) to Bybit, sparking speculation about market positioning for a potential price surge according to market analysis. Meanwhile, Anchorage Digital-a major custodian-has been approved to hold USDe, enhancing the stablecoin's institutional credibility and security profile according to project updates. Ethena Labs' recent deposit of 101.79 million ENA ($20.9 million) across exchanges and partnerships with Anchorage Digital to offer in-platform rewards for USDe holders further solidify its institutional appeal according to project data.

The Convergence of Price and Fundamentals

The interplay between technical and fundamental factors creates a powerful case for ENA's near-term trajectory. A confirmed wedge breakout, supported by rising RSI and institutional inflows, could trigger a self-fulfilling prophecy as traders and investors align with the bullish narrative. Anchorage Digital's involvement and Hayes' strategic allocations signal broader adoption of Ethena's stablecoin infrastructure, which could drive demand for ENA as a governance and utility token.

However, risks remain. A failure to break above $0.225 could see the price retest the $0.20–$0.205 support zone, invalidating the wedge pattern. Traders should monitor volume during the breakout attempt; a surge in trading activity would confirm institutional participation and reduce the likelihood of a false signal.

Conclusion: A High-Probability Setup

Ethena (ENA) sits at a pivotal juncture. The falling wedge pattern, bolstered by strong technical indicators and institutional credibility, presents a high-probability trade for a 70% rally. As whale activity and custodial upgrades reinforce the protocol's fundamentals, the stage is set for a breakout that could redefine ENA's role in the DeFi ecosystem. For investors, the key is to watch for a clean close above $0.225-preferably with elevated volume-and to position accordingly in a market increasingly primed for momentum.