Ethena (ENA): Is the Death Cross and Whale Sell-Off a Buying Opportunity or a Deepening Trap?

Ethena (ENA) has become a focal point of bearish speculation in late 2025, with its price hovering near a critical "death cross" formation and facing relentless selling pressure from whales and token unlocks. For investors, the question looms: Is this a contrarian buying opportunity, or a deepening trap that could see the token plummet further? To answer this, we must dissect the technical indicators, market sentiment, and structural factors shaping ENA's trajectory.

Technical-Bearish Momentum: A Death Cross in Formation

The death cross-a 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crossing below the 200-day SMA-is a historically bearish signal, and ENA is perilously close to confirming it. As of November 26, 2025, the price is trading below all major moving averages: MA-20 ($0.2761), MA-50 ($0.3580), and MA-200 ($0.4651). This alignment suggests a continuation of downward momentum, with analysts projecting a potential drop to $0.197, a 36% decline from current levels according to reports.

Technical indicators reinforce this bearish narrative. The Supertrend indicator turned red as it crossed above the price line, signaling a bearish bias. The RSI-14 is near 30–32, indicating oversold conditions that could trigger a short-term rebound but are unlikely to reverse the broader downtrend according to analysis. Meanwhile, the MACD has turned negative (-0.00127), and the Chaikin Money Flow is at 0.02, reflecting weak buying pressure. The ADX reading of 38 underscores the persistence of the downward trend.

Support and Resistance: A Fragile Floor

Key support levels for ENA as of November 26, 2025, are $0.2329, $0.2229, and $0.2098, with the strongest support at $0.2098. Resistance levels are clustered at $0.2560, $0.2690, and $0.2790 according to market analysis. The current price of $0.2400 sits just above the first support level, creating a high-stakes scenario: a break below $0.2098 could accelerate the decline toward $0.197, while a rebound above $0.2887 might rekindle bullish momentum.

Whale Selling and Token Unlocks: A Perfect Storm

Whale activity has exacerbated ENA's bearish momentum. Notable sell-offs, such as Arthur Hayes' $1.4 million dump in early November, have intensified downward pressure. Over the past three months, whale-held balances dropped from 65.24 million to 43.06 million, reflecting a 34% reduction in large investor holdings. Token unlocks have further compounded the issue, with 54.88 million in ENA released on November 2 and $15.7 million on November 6, increasing supply and diluting scarcity.

However, not all whale activity is bearish. Ethena Labs' strategic withdrawal of 25 million ENA tokens from Bybit-valued at $7.05 million-signals confidence in the token's long-term value. Additionally, one whale recently acquired 17.76 million ENA using 13.11 million USDC, suggesting selective accumulation amid the chaos.

Risk-Reward Analysis: A High-Stakes Gamble

The risk-reward profile for ENA is skewed toward caution. Short-term rebounds, such as the 4.53% 24-hour gain driven by protocol expansions and USDe adoption, are unlikely to offset the broader bearish setup. USDe's supply has surpassed $9.3 billion, yet this utility-driven demand remains overshadowed by the technical breakdown.

For a bullish reversal, ENA must reclaim the $0.2887 resistance level and sustain a break above it-a feat complicated by the death cross and weak on-chain metrics. The Fear & Greed Index at 15/100 and a projected 25.08% price drop to $0.1802 by January 1, 2026, further tilt the odds against a near-term recovery.

Conclusion: A Trap for the Unwary

While the oversold RSI and protocol-driven demand hint at temporary stability, the technical-bearish momentum and structural selling pressures paint a grim picture. The death cross, coupled with whale sell-offs and token unlocks, suggests a deepening trap rather than a buying opportunity. Investors should treat any rebounds as tactical exits rather than entry points. For ENA to rekindle bullish momentum, it must first overcome the $0.2887 threshold and demonstrate sustained buying pressure-a scenario that appears increasingly improbable in the near term.