Ethena Absorbs Hayes' 3.6M ENA Transfer – Why ENA Refuses to Break Down

Arthur Hayes recently transferred 3.63 million ENA to Galaxy and Binance, sparking market discussions about potential distribution risks.

However, on-chain data indicates that this transfer has been absorbed by persistent buyer demand rather than triggering panic selling.

The move appears to be part of a broader portfolio reallocation strategy by Hayes, including a $500,000 PENDLE deposit and HYPE accumulation.

ENA's price remains below key moving averages and within a descending regression channel, with bearish momentum still evident on most indicators. Despite this, the MACD histogram is contracting, suggesting weakening bearish pressure, and horizontal demand at $0.130 remains firm. The market appears to be responding to the increased supply by defending key levels, which implies a deliberate accumulation strategy rather than an aggressive exit.

The token's performance is further complicated by structural issues in its tokenomics, such as an excessive 15B ENA supply and fee distribution skewed toward derivatives. These factors create persistent downward pressure, even as USDe, Ethena's stablecoin, continues to grow in TVL and market cap. Additionally, ongoing token unlocks contribute to short-term volatility and test market absorption and psychology.

What Is Behind ENA's Recent Price Movement?

ENA's recent 10.01% price increase has been attributed to heightened centralized exchange activity, including Arthur Hayes' transfers of ENA and PENDLE. However, experts caution that the fundamentals remain unchanged, and the rally is likely a corrective bounce amid strong bearish momentum. Despite short-term buyer absorption, ENA's price remains below critical technical levels like the MA-20 and MA-50.

The market's response to Hayes' actions has been mixed. While some see the move as a test of liquidity, others view it as a sign of strategic reallocation rather than a bearish signal. The liquidation map also reveals a dense concentration of short-side exposure between $0.135 and $0.145, which could create asymmetric risk if the price moves upward. This dynamic may lead to forced buy-ins and upward price appreciation, depending on how the market absorbs the increased supply.

What Structural Issues Continue to Affect ENA?

Ethena's tokenomics remain under scrutiny due to its large supply and fee allocation imbalances. The protocol has yet to implement token burns or buybacks, and the majority of revenue is directed toward derivatives rather than directly supporting ENA holders. This has led to persistent downward pressure on the token price, even as USDe's TVL and usage grow.

The recent 40.63M ENA unlock in February 2026 has added short-term volatility and tested market psychology. While Ethena has launched initiatives like 'Converge' to incentivize staking and long-term engagement, the broader issue of insufficient revenue diversification remains unresolved. Institutional adoption and regulatory clarity could play a significant role in shaping ENA's long-term trajectory, but these factors are currently absent from the immediate outlook.

ENA remains in an oversold region with mixed momentum signals. While the RSI suggests short-term recovery potential, the MACD and price below EMA20 indicate continued bearish dominance. Traders are advised to monitor key support levels like $0.08–$0.06 for potential reversal signals while staying cautious about medium-term trends.