Ethena's $30.3M Token Unlock May Pressure ENA Price

Ethena is scheduled to unlock 94.19 million ENA tokens on May 2, valued at approximately $30.3 million, which represents 1.7% of its market cap. This significant token release is expected to introduce new supply into the market, potentially exerting downward pressure on the token's price if demand does not match the increased supply. The unlock event is part of a broader schedule, with an even larger release of 171.85 million ENA tokens planned for May 5, valued at $55.28 million or 3.09% of the market cap. These consecutive unlocks raise concerns about potential cascading sell pressure in the near term.

Technical indicators provide a mixed outlook for ENA's price movement. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 54.34, indicating a neutral level with room for price movement in either direction. The recent upward trend in the RSI suggests short-term buying activity, possibly related to the upcoming unlock event or a broader market rally. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line has crossed above the signal line, with histogram bars turning green, typically a bullish indicator. However, the MACD's proximity to the zero line suggests that the momentum is not strong enough to rule out a potential reversal.

The current price of ENA is $0.3217, close to the 0.236 retracement level at $0.3193, indicating a modest recovery. However, the inability to reclaim the local high of $0.3253 could confirm a local top and signal further downside. Key support levels to watch include $0.3108 (0.618 Fib) and $0.3068 (0.786 Fib). If the token breaks below $0.3193 after the May 2 unlock, it could move toward these lower support levels. Conversely, if market sentiment remains positive and buyers absorb the unlocked supply, ENA could reclaim the $0.3253 high, potentially opening the door to a move toward $0.335 or higher.

The upcoming token unlocks present a critical juncture for ENA's price prediction. Market participants may preemptively sell or avoid aggressive long positions in anticipation of the increased supply. The ability of the market to absorb the unlocked tokens will be a key factor in determining ENA's near-term price movement. Investors and traders should closely monitor the market's reaction to the unlock events and adjust their strategies accordingly.