Ethena's $0.64 Support Test: Whales vs. Regulators in High-Stakes Price Battle

Ethena (ENA) has sparked renewed interest amid on-chain signals of whale accumulation and mixed technical indicators. Whale activity revealed the purchase of 2.8 million ENA tokens in a single week, with addresses holding 10,000–100,000 tokens seeing a 122% surge in combined balances to 82.6 million tokens Whales Load Up 2.8 Million ENA, Could Ethena Price Hit $5 Soon^[2]. This accumulation coincides with ENA trading near $0.575, below its 20-day EMA but above the 200-day EMA, suggesting a potential bullish bias if it holds above $0.64 Latest Ethena News - (ENA) Future Outlook, Trends & Market …^[1]. Analysts have highlighted $0.50 and $0.40 as key re-entry levels, with long-term price targets as high as $5 Whales Load Up 2.8 Million ENA, Could Ethena Price Hit $5 Soon^[2].

Technical resistance remains critical at $0.80–$0.90, a level last tested in July 2025. A breakout could reignite momentum toward $1, while rejection may consolidate prices near $0.60–$0.70 Latest Ethena News - (ENA) Future Outlook, Trends & Market …^[1]. However, caution is warranted as Open Interest (OI) surged 18% to $1.3 billion, with liquidity clusters below current levels posing risks of a sharp reversal Ethena (ENA) Price Prediction: Is ENA the Altcoin to Watch This …^[5]. Liquidation data shows $4.61 million in short liquidations versus $730,000 in longs, but a market reversal could target overleveraged longs, triggering cascading sell-offs .

Regulatory developments also loom large. The SEC and CFTC's upcoming roundtable on stablecoin oversight could shape policies for Ethena's USDtb, a GENIUS Act-compliant stablecoin. While clearer guidelines may boost institutional adoption, stricter yield restrictions could pressure USDe's 11% APY model Latest Ethena News - (ENA) Future Outlook, Trends & Market …^[1]. Meanwhile, USDe's market cap reached $10 billion within 500 days, doubling its supply in one month and positioning it as the third-largest stablecoin .

Market sentiment is split. Short-term spot flows show $12 million in net outflows, but weekly inflows of $5.7 million suggest bullish momentum . Analysts like Crypto Patel and Nehal advocate tiered entry strategies, emphasizing patience as volatility could persist until October 2025 when the $260 million buyback program concludes Whales Load Up 2.8 Million ENA, Could Ethena Price Hit $5 Soon^[2]. Ethena's governance expansion and cross-chain restaking upgrades aim to deepen ENA's utility, though yield pool caps indicate cautious scaling Latest Ethena News - (ENA) Future Outlook, Trends & Market …^[1].

Looking ahead, the Ethena Chain launch in Q4 2025 and a potential fee switch to redirect protocol revenue to buybacks could drive reflexive demand. However, success hinges on maintaining USDe's $10 billion+ TVL and 11%+ APY while navigating regulatory scrutiny .