ETHDAI Market Overview: Volatility and Momentum Signals on a Key Pair

Summary
• ETHDAI opened at 3315.04 and closed at 3449.82, with a 24-hour high of 3477.8 and low of 3296.08.
• Price formed bullish engulfing and hammer patterns, suggesting potential reversal after a late-night pullback.
• Volatility expanded overnight, with volume peaking near $3470 and diverging from price at the end of the session.

Ethereum/Dai (ETHDAI) opened at 3315.04 on 2025-11-07 at 12:00 ET − 1 and closed at 3449.82 by 12:00 ET the next day. The pair hit a high of 3477.8 and a low of 3296.08, with a total volume of 14.8699 and a turnover (notional value) of approximately $50,603.37 (based on cumulative volume × average price).

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bullish engulfing pattern at 3324.8 (17:15 ET), followed by a strong hammer at 3420.32 (19:30 ET), suggesting buying pressure after a sharp drop. A bearish divergence emerged in the final hour, with a new high of 3477.8 and minimal volume, indicating potential resistance near 3470–3480. Key support levels appear to be forming around 3430–3440, with a potential 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the high at 3477.8 targeting 3447.16.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20 and 50-period moving averages crossed upward in the early morning, signaling a bullish bias. The daily chart shows the 50-period MA at 3430.84 and the 200-period MA at 3410.52, suggesting a short-term bullish bias with medium-term support intact.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into positive territory around 19:00 ET and remained above zero until 09:00 ET, with a strong histogram peak at 01:45 ET. The RSI hit 65 at 05:45 ET and dipped to 40 at 10:00 ET, suggesting overbought conditions earlier, with a moderate pullback afterward. Momentum appears to be slowing, with RSI now near 50.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded as the upper band widened to 3475–3480 from a narrow 3340–3380 range early on. ETHDAI closed near the upper band at 3449.82, suggesting a strong move within an extended volatility period. A contraction is now possible, possibly leading to a potential reversal or continuation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged at 21:00 ET with a large candle reaching 3471.44, and again at 05:45 ET near 3477.8. However, the final candle at 10:00 ET had a new high but very low volume (zero), indicating a potential divergence. Turnover confirmed strong buying pressure during the upleg but may signal weakness in the final hours.

Fibonacci Retracements

From the swing low at 3296.08 to the high at 3477.8, key levels at 3447.16 (61.8%) and 3460.92 (38.2%) are near the current price. A close above 3460.92 could trigger a next target of 3482.15, while a break below 3447.16 may bring support from 3430–3440 into focus.

Backtest Hypothesis

The provided backtest strategy employs a “Bullish Engulfing – 3 Day Hold” approach, which aligns with the ETHDAI pattern formed at 3324.8 and 3420.32. Using this strategy on ETHDAI would require confirming the engulfing pattern on the 15-minute chart and holding for 3 days, which could capture the early morning upmove. This approach, however, assumes consistent follow-through and ignores volatility spikes that may trigger early exits. A similar methodology could be applied to daily patterns for longer-term positions.