ETHDAI Market Overview: Ethereum/Dai Faces Key Support Amid Volatile 24-Hour Session

• ETHDAI declined 2.7% over 24 hours amid high volatility and multiple failed attempts to retest key resistance.
• Price formed bearish engulfing and inside bars, signaling distribution and weakening bullish momentum.
• RSI moved into oversold territory, while volume remained thin, suggesting potential consolidation or a sharp rebound.
• Bollinger Bands widened in the late session, indicating increased uncertainty and potential for a breakout or breakdown.
• Fibonacci 61.8% support at ~4,530–4,540 appears critical for near-term directional bias.

Ethereum/Dai (ETHDAI) opened at 4,602.32 on September 18, 2025, and traded as high as 4,632.16 before retreating to a low of 4,450.00, closing at 4,472.66 at 12:00 ET on September 19. Total volume was 190.85 ETH, with a notional turnover of ~690,857 DAI (based on average price ~3,620 DAI). The 24-hour move reflected heightened volatility and key support testing at lower levels.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed several bearish candlestick patterns, including a morning bearish engulfing formation on the 15-minute chart near 4,615.67 and a series of inside bars in the early hours of the session. A large bearish candle formed around 4,595–4,597 DAI, confirming a breakdown after a failed rally. Key support levels emerged at 4,550 and 4,530 DAI, where price found temporary refuge. The structure suggests traders are testing these levels for possible continuation or rejection.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute chart showed the price below the 20 and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing bearish momentum. On the daily time frame, the 50-period MA hovered around 4,600–4,620 DAI, above the current price, suggesting a bearish divergence. The 200-period MA, while not directly tested, remains above the current price and could serve as a reference for a long-term trend shift if broken decisively.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative early in the session and remained below the signal line, confirming bearish momentum. RSI dropped into oversold territory (~28) near the close, suggesting a potential bounce or short-covering rally. However, the low volume accompanying this move weakens the signal’s strength, indicating a lack of conviction from bullish participants.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly, with the Bollinger Bands widening after a period of contraction. Price closed near the lower band, indicating potential for a mean reversion move or a continuation lower. If the price stays below the 4,550 DAI level, the lower band could act as a dynamic support, while a break above the midline may signal a temporary pause in the downtrend.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume spiked around the 17:15 ET candle (on 2025-09-18), where a large bearish candle formed with volume of 7.13 ETH. This was followed by multiple low-volume candles, suggesting a lack of follow-through. Notional turnover remained relatively stable despite the price drop, indicating broad participation in the selling wave. Divergence between price and volume is a key sign of weakening momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent swing high (4,632.16) to the swing low (4,450.00), the 61.8% level at ~4,530–4,540 DAI appears to be a critical support zone. A break below this level could expose the 38.2% retrace (~4,555 DAI) and eventually the 23.6% level (~4,575 DAI). On the daily chart, a similar Fibonacci structure suggests further downside risk if the 4,450 DAI level fails again.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current structure, a potential backtesting hypothesis could involve entering short positions on a confirmed break of the 4,530 DAI level with a stop just above the 4,550–4,555 DAI range. A target could be set at 4,470–4,460 DAI, aligning with the 38.2% retracement level and recent volatility support. Alternatively, if RSI and volume show signs of a potential reversal (e.g., a bullish divergence or a spike in buying volume), a long position near 4,500 DAI may be considered for a countertrend rebound.