ETHDAI Market Overview: Ethereum/Dai Eyes 4,600 with High Momentum

• Price surged 10.7% from 4,457.15 to 4,544.79 amid strong volume expansion in overnight hours.
• Momentum accelerated sharply after 02:45 ET, forming a bullish breakout above prior resistance.
• Volatility contracted briefly before the surge but spiked during the final 4 hours.
• RSI reached overbought levels near 75, suggesting short-term exhaustion.
• Volume in the final 8 hours outpaced the entire previous day’s, indicating strong conviction.

Ethereum/Dai (ETHDAI) opened at 4,457.15 (12:00 ET - 1), climbed to 4,544.68, fell to 4,473.34, and closed at 4,544.79 by 12:00 ET. Total volume over the 24-hour window was 179.52, while notional turnover reached 834,265.64. Price action suggests a breakout in progress following a multi-hour consolidation phase.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bullish breakout pattern following a multi-hour consolidation between 4,473.34 and 4,556.82, breaking above the 4,551.95 high on strong volume. Key support levels remain at 4,533.05 and 4,490.36, both tested and rejected in the prior 48 hours. A long lower wick on the 15-minute bar at 04:00 ET suggests buyers defended the 4,556.82 area, while a rejection of the 4,569.66 high at 07:15 ET may signal a retest before a potential rally to 4,600. A doji near 4,566.18 on thin volume indicates indecision ahead of a potential breakout.

Moving Averages & MACD/RSI

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended upward in the final 6 hours, with price well above both. The 50-period line crossed above the 20-period line at 07:00 ET, confirming bullish momentum. MACD diverged strongly, with the histogram expanding rapidly since 02:45 ET, while RSI surged to overbought territory (75–80) by 03:15 ET. This suggests a potential correction could be near-term unless buyers defend the 4,533.05 support.

Bollinger Bands & Fibonacci Retracements

Price briefly touched the lower Bollinger Band at 4,473.34 before reversing strongly. By 03:15 ET, price had broken above the upper band on expanding volatility, indicating a breakout in progress. On the 15-minute swing from 4,473.34 to 4,551.95, the 61.8% Fibonacci level sits at 4,528.86, which has been rejected twice. The 78.6% extension near 4,570.34 is the immediate target, with a potential extension to 4,600 if buyers hold above 4,533.05.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically at 02:45 ET (39.9195) and remained elevated for the next 4 hours, with total turnover in that period reaching 187,500. This coincided with a 7.5% rally from 4,487.29 to 4,522.42 and a final move to 4,551.95. Turnover in the 02:45–06:00 ET window outpaced the previous 18 hours, confirming strong institutional participation. However, the last 3 hours showed declining volume on the 4,569.66 high, suggesting a potential pullback.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the breakout pattern, strong RSI momentum, and elevated volume, a backtest strategy could involve a long entry at a confirmed breakout above 4,556.82 with a stop just below 4,533.05. A first target aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci at 4,528.86 and the 78.6% at 4,570.34. The MACD histogram and diverging RSI suggest a potential pullback after a strong move, which could be used to refine entries on dips into the 4,533.05–4,544.79 range. Traders should monitor volume on retests of 4,533.05 to confirm strength before committing further.