ETHDAI Market Overview: Ethereum/Dai Breaks Below 4150 Amid Heavy Volume and Oversold Conditions

• ETHDAI dropped 5.4% over 24 hours, breaking below 4150 and testing 4000
• Volume surged near 4000 but failed to confirm a bounce
• RSI signaled oversold conditions below 30 before a partial recovery
• Bollinger Bands narrowed during consolidation, then expanded with the move to 4000
• Fibonacci 61.8% support at ~4010 showed weak buying

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-25, Ethereum/Dai (ETHDAI) opened at 4170.44, fell to a 24-hour low of 3943.09, and closed at 3999.76. Total volume over the 24-hour window was 196.34 ETH, with a turnover of $786,750 (notional value). Price action shows a bearish breakdown and heavy distribution near key psychological levels.

The structure of the 15-minute chart reveals a strong bearish bias, with a breakdown below 4150 and a sharp fall to 4000. Key support levels identified include 4150, 4100, and 4044.0 (from earlier consolidation). A notable bearish engulfing pattern appeared at 4147.0, confirming the shift in sentiment. Resistance levels include 4170.44, 4183.18, and 4192.89 from earlier highs. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at ~4010 acted as a temporary floor, but buyers showed little conviction.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart indicate a bearish bias, with price closing below the 20- and 50-period moving averages. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is also bearish, while the 200-period MA shows a strong downward trend. The 15-minute chart shows a sharp divergence between price and volume as ETHDAI approached 4000, with a volume spike but no meaningful reversal, indicating distribution.

MACD has shown a bearish crossover on the 15-minute chart, confirming the downward momentum. The RSI bottomed near 30, signaling oversold conditions, but the bounce remains tentative. Bollinger Bands have expanded from a tight range to show increased volatility as the price broke below key support levels. ETHDAI closed near the lower band, suggesting a continuation of the trend.

Volume and turnover data show a spike near 4000, but the price failed to form a bullish reversal pattern. The divergence between price and volume suggests a lack of conviction among buyers. Notional turnover surged during the move to 4000, indicating aggressive selling pressure. The 61.8% Fibonacci level at ~4010 has now become a key watch point for potential bounce or breakdown.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described is a momentum-based approach that enters short positions when ETHDAI breaks below a key Fibonacci retracement level (e.g., 61.8%) and confirms with a bearish engulfing candle. Stops are placed above the recent swing high, and targets are set at the next Fibonacci level or 1.618 extension. The strategy relies on strong volume confirmation and divergence for entry and exit. Given the current setup, this approach could offer risk-reward ratios of 1:2 or better, with a focus on short-term bearish continuation.