ETHDAI Market Overview: Bullish Breakout and Key Resistance Tests

• Ethereum/Dai (ETHDAI) closed higher after a morning consolidation phase on increased volume.
• A bullish breakout above a prior resistance level saw strong intraday momentum, pushing prices to a new 24-hour high.
• Volatility spiked midday, with RSI peaking near overbought territory before a brief pullback.
• Bollinger Bands showed a late expansion, reflecting renewed price movement after an early contraction.
• Turnover remained concentrated in the afternoon, coinciding with a sharp price reversal.

The Ethereum/Dai pair (ETHDAI) opened at 4,399.45 on 2025-10-02 at 12:00 ET and closed at 4,479.77 at the same time the following day. During the 24-hour period, the price touched a high of 4,657.22 and a low of 4,354.20. Total trading volume reached 86.46 ETH, while notional turnover amounted to ~$393,243,450, assuming an average DAI value of $1.

The pair exhibited a bullish breakout in the late morning, driven by strong volume and a sharp upward reversal after a morning consolidation. A bullish engulfing pattern formed around 19:30 ET, followed by a sharp move to a new 24-hour high. This was supported by rising RSI and narrowing Bollinger Bands early in the day, followed by an expansion in the late afternoon. A 20-period and 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart showed a positive crossover around 18:30 ET, reinforcing the bullish momentum.

A 50-period moving average (on the daily timeframe) crossed above the 100-period line in the early hours of 2025-10-03, indicating a potential continuation of the uptrend. The price also tested the 61.8% Fibonacci level (from a prior decline) around 03:30 ET before bouncing strongly. A key support level was identified at 4,460.54, which held twice during the session, suggesting a possible floor in the near term.

The momentum was confirmed by the MACD line crossing above the signal line in the early morning, with a positive divergence observed in the final hours of the day. However, RSI entered overbought territory twice during the session, raising the risk of a short-term correction. The MACD histogram showed increasing bullish divergence as the day progressed, particularly after 02:00 ET.

Volatility spiked midday, with a 4.5% range in a single 15-minute candle around 15:45 ET, as volume surged to 23.0097 ETH. Notional turnover spiked correspondingly, aligning with the price action, indicating strong conviction behind the move. The lack of divergence between price and volume suggests the move is supported by real liquidity, not just retail buying.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent bullish reversal patterns and strong volume confirmation, a backtest strategy could focus on entries on a confirmed break above 4,495.00 with a stop-loss just below the 4,460.54 support level. A trailing stop could be placed at 1.5% below the entry price, with targets at 4,550.00 and 4,600.00. This strategy would aim to capture the momentum from the morning breakout while limiting downside exposure during the expected consolidation phases. Historical testing would be needed to refine the stop and target levels, but the current chart setup aligns well with breakout and continuation logic.