ETH/USDT Market Overview: A 24-Hour Breakdown for October 9, 2025

• ETH/USDT rose from $4,440.30 to a high of $4,558.00 before retreating to $4,481.53 at 12:00 ET
• A sharp bearish reversal formed after a 4.8% rally, with volume peaking at $4,547.00
• RSI reached overbought territory, suggesting potential near-term correction
• Price found support at 4,460–4,480 cluster, confirming key psychological levels
• Volatility expanded early in the session, then retracted, pointing to consolidating momentum

Ethereum/Tether (ETHUSDT) opened at $4,440.30 on October 8, 2025 at 12:00 ET and reached an intraday high of $4,558.00 before retreating to close at $4,481.53 at 12:00 ET the following day. Total volume for the 24-hour window was approximately 151,933 ETH, with notional turnover reaching $693.6 million (based on weighted average prices). The session featured a strong bullish breakout followed by a sharp bearish reversal, indicating heightened market volatility and shifting sentiment.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed a classic bullish engulfing pattern at the start of the session, with price surging from $4,440.30 to $4,496.36 in just 1.5 hours. This pattern was followed by a large bearish engulfing candle starting at $4,538.88, confirming a reversal. A key support cluster between $4,463.01 and $4,464.10 formed as price retested the level three times, acting as a floor. A doji at $4,481.53 signaled indecision after the decline, suggesting a potential short-term equilibrium.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute chart showed price above both the 20-EMA and 50-EMA at the peak, indicating bullish momentum. However, as the price declined, it dropped below the 50-EMA, indicating a shift toward bearish control. On the daily chart, the 50-EMA and 200-EMA crossed below the price during the pullback, a bearish signal, while the 100-EMA remained a dynamic resistance.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a strong bullish crossover during the upward move, but a bearish crossover occurred at the peak before the decline, aligning with the bearish reversal. The RSI reached overbought territory at 73 during the high, followed by a rapid drop to neutral levels, suggesting a potential near-term correction.

Bollinger Bands

The volatility expanded significantly during the bullish phase, with price touching the upper band at $4,558.00. After the peak, volatility compressed as price moved closer to the midline, indicating a potential consolidation phase.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the peak at $4,547.00 with 15,048 ETH traded, confirming the strength of the move. However, as price retreated, volume decreased, signaling reduced conviction in the bearish move. Notional turnover declined in the latter half of the session, consistent with a consolidation phase rather than a breakout.

Fibonacci Retracements

Price found support at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (around $4,481.00) during the retracement, aligning with the 4,463–4,480 cluster. On the 15-minute chart, the 61.8% retracement at $4,490.00 acted as a resistance ahead of the bearish reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves entering long positions on a bullish engulfing pattern followed by a confirmed breakout above the 50-EMA, while exiting on a bearish engulfing candle or when the RSI enters overbought territory. A stop-loss can be placed at the nearest support level (e.g., $4,460–4,480), and a take-profit target aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci level or the upper Bollinger Band. This method would aim to capture momentum while limiting downside exposure during volatile swings.

Forward-looking, Ethereum may face a critical test at $4,460–4,480 in the next 24 hours. A break below this level could trigger further correction toward $4,410, while a rebound above the 50-EMA at ~$4,500 could signal a resumption of the bullish trend. Investors should remain cautious, as divergences in volume and RSI suggest mixed sentiment and potential for sharp reversals.