ETFs and Miners Clash as Bitcoin Soars on Liquidity Surge

Bitcoin’s price trajectory has remained a focal point of both institutional and retail investors this week, driven by several key factors. The cryptocurrency currently trades at $69,947.61, with a total market capitalization of $1.379 trillion. Over the past 30 days, Bitcoin's price has increased by 6.19%, while spot Bitcoin ETFs have rapidly reshaped the supply-demand dynamics in the crypto market. Since their approval in January 2024, these ETFs have attracted over $150 billion in inflows, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) leading the way. These funds now hold over 1.29 million BTC, accounting for more than 6% of the total circulating supply.

The demand for Bitcoin through ETFs has consistently outpaced new supply from miners. In recent days, ETFs have purchased over 10 times the amount of BTC that miners produce daily. For instance, on February 12, spot ETFs acquired approximately 10,280 BTC, while miners added just 1,059 BTC to the market. This imbalance has been a key driver of Bitcoin’s 160% price surge since the ETFs’ approval. Analysts attribute this phenomenon to a combination of factors, including growing institutional adoption and the regulated framework of ETFs, which attract investors seeking a familiar and compliant way to access Bitcoin.

Looking ahead, macroeconomic signals suggest Bitcoin’s price could see further gains. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s upcoming FOMC decision on September 17 has become a focal point for traders. Market participants are closely watching for a potential 25 basis point rate cut, which could reduce returns on fixed-income assets and shift capital toward risk assets like Bitcoin. A 50 basis point cut—though considered less likely—is seen as a more bullish scenario, potentially injecting $2.5 trillion in liquidity into global markets and fueling a broader rally. However, analysts caution that a "sell-the-news" effect is possible, particularly if the rate cut is fully priced in by the market.

Additionally, Bitcoin’s price has shown a strong historical correlation with global M2 money supply growth. As of July 2025, global M2 reached a record high of $55.48 trillion, indicating a surge in liquidity. Analysts have used this metric to project Bitcoin’s price target, with some estimates suggesting a potential move toward $170,000 by the end of 2025. This projection is based on historical patterns where Bitcoin tends to lag M2 by two to six months, especially during liquidity expansions. The U.S. dollar’s weakening performance—falling 10.8% in the first half of 2025—has also amplified Bitcoin’s appeal, further supporting the bullish case.

While these forecasts are speculative and should be viewed with caution, they highlight the growing influence of macroeconomic factors on Bitcoin’s price. Institutional investors and ETF inflows are reshaping the market, and macroeconomic conditions suggest a supportive environment for further gains. However, as with any investment, risks remain, and market participants should carefully assess their risk tolerance before making decisions.