ETF Pulse Check Evaluating TPHE Amid Evolving Market Conditions
ETF EdgeSunday, Jun 15, 2025 9:13 pm ET
3min readThe Timothy Plan High Dividend Stock Enhanced ETF (TPHE) is a unique investment vehicle that tracks a volatility-weighted index of high dividend US large-cap companies, meticulously screened for Christian values. Its investment strategy includes a cash-trigger mechanism to hedge against market risk, making it especially relevant in today's dynamic financial landscape. By selecting stocks from a parent index comprising volatility-weighted US large-cap firms with positive earnings over the past year, TPHE applies its proprietary Biblically Responsible Investing (BRI) criteria to exclude companies involved in sectors such as alcohol, tobacco, gambling, and non-biblical lifestyles. Among the qualified stocks, TPHE selects the top 100 highest-yielding ones, weighting them by volatility, thus giving preference to stocks with lower volatility. During market downturns, TPHE can allocate up to 75% of its portfolio to cash equivalents like US T-bills, based on a daily assessment of market movements. This strategy is noteworthy in the current environment, where market volatility and ethical investing are of increasing importance.
Basic Information
The Timothy Plan High Dividend Stock Enhanced ETF, symbolized by TPHE, was issued by Timothy Plan on July 29, 2021. It carries an expense ratio of 0.52%, which is relatively high compared to industry standards, potentially impacting investor returns. The ETF's top 15 holdings include companies such as Evergy, Atmos Energy, and DTE Energy, with weights ranging from 1.60% to 1.20%. Utilities dominate its sector exposure at 12.4%, followed by Information Technology at 2.53%, Industrials at 2.52%, and Financials at 1.42%. The ETF has experienced negative net flows in recent times, with a 7-day ratio of -0.78% and a 30-day ratio of -0.21%. Its average return over six months stands at 1.60%, a figure that rises to 6.40% over one year but significantly drops to 0.27% over three years, highlighting inconsistencies in growth potential. Volatility measures reveal return standard deviations of 3.75% for six months, increasing to 6.06% over one year and 7.21% over three years. Moreover, the ETF has encountered maximum drawdowns of nearly 1% over both one-year and three-year periods.
News Summary
Recent news pertaining to TPHE's primary sector exposure, utilities, underscores the ongoing challenges and opportunities facing this industry. Headlines from sources such as Utility Dive and Factor This™ emphasize advancements in smart grid technology and clean energy, which are critical to the sector's evolution. Mark Ellis, a former utility executive turned activist, has highlighted the financial burden posed by rising electricity costs, potentially affecting investor sentiment towards utility-focused ETFs like TPHE. Additionally, macroeconomic developments, such as Hungary's nomination of Daniel Palotai, may have indirect implications for TPHE through shifts in global economic sentiment and energy prices. The ETF's exposure to utility stocks requires careful monitoring of regulatory changes and geopolitical events that could influence energy markets and, consequently, its performance.
Analyst Rating: Strong Sell
The Timothy Plan High Dividend Stock Enhanced ETF (TPHE) faces significant investment challenges, warranting a "Strong Sell" rating. The ETF's expense ratio of 0.52% is above the industry norm, potentially eroding investor returns. Negative net flow ratios over the past 7 and 30 days indicate weak investor confidence and possible liquidity concerns. TPHE's average returns—1.60% over six months, 6.40% over one year, and 0.27% over three years—reveal insufficient growth potential. Although return stability is moderate, the ETF's max drawdown figures are alarming, nearly negating gains entirely over both one-year and three-year periods. The concentration in its top holdings and sectors is minimal, with the top 15 holdings accounting for only 20.07% of the portfolio and utilities making up 12.4% of sector exposure, signaling a lack of strategic focus. These factors collectively contribute to TPHE's weak investment profile.
Backtest Scenario
A backtest of TPHE during the 2022 energy crisis compared to 2025 market conditions provides insights into its strategy's effectiveness. During the 2022 energy crisis, TPHE's focus on high dividend stocks and volatility-weighted methodology likely offered stability, with high dividend stocks providing consistent income despite volatile stock prices. The ETF's approach of allocating more to stocks with lower volatility may have mitigated the impact of energy price shocks. Additionally, TPHE's tactical shift to cash equivalents during market declines could have safeguarded investor capital during the crisis's peak. In 2025, more stable market conditions have potentially allowed TPHE to benefit from dividend income and capital appreciation, as its risk management strategy has not been triggered due to the absence of significant market declines. Overall, TPHE's performance during the 2022 energy crisis demonstrated stability, while its strategy in 2025 has likely maintained consistent returns through dividends.
Risk Outlook
The Timothy Plan High Dividend Stock Enhanced ETF (TPHE) is exposed to several risks, primarily due to its significant holdings in the utilities sector. Regulatory changes, rising electricity costs, and the transition to clean energy pose challenges that could affect the profitability of its key holdings, like Evergy and Atmos Energy. Geopolitical tensions and energy price fluctuations further contribute to sector volatility. Additionally, European central bank policy shifts, as observed with Hungary's strategic alignments, may indirectly impact U.S. markets, affecting sectors sensitive to international dynamics. The ETF's negative net flow ratios highlight potential liquidity risks, indicating shifting investor sentiment. While TPHE's return volatility is moderate, its max drawdown underscores vulnerability to market downturns. Analysts should closely monitor regulatory environments, energy market dynamics, and international economic conditions, as these factors could exacerbate sector-specific risks.
Conclusion
For investors, TPHE may align more with a conservative investment strategy given its focus on high dividend stocks and risk mitigation during market downturns. However, the ETF's performance challenges and sector-specific risks necessitate careful monitoring of regulatory changes and energy market dynamics. Investors should remain vigilant about shifts in international economic conditions that could indirectly impact TPHE's sector exposures and overall investment viability.
Basic Information
The Timothy Plan High Dividend Stock Enhanced ETF, symbolized by TPHE, was issued by Timothy Plan on July 29, 2021. It carries an expense ratio of 0.52%, which is relatively high compared to industry standards, potentially impacting investor returns. The ETF's top 15 holdings include companies such as Evergy, Atmos Energy, and DTE Energy, with weights ranging from 1.60% to 1.20%. Utilities dominate its sector exposure at 12.4%, followed by Information Technology at 2.53%, Industrials at 2.52%, and Financials at 1.42%. The ETF has experienced negative net flows in recent times, with a 7-day ratio of -0.78% and a 30-day ratio of -0.21%. Its average return over six months stands at 1.60%, a figure that rises to 6.40% over one year but significantly drops to 0.27% over three years, highlighting inconsistencies in growth potential. Volatility measures reveal return standard deviations of 3.75% for six months, increasing to 6.06% over one year and 7.21% over three years. Moreover, the ETF has encountered maximum drawdowns of nearly 1% over both one-year and three-year periods.
News Summary
Recent news pertaining to TPHE's primary sector exposure, utilities, underscores the ongoing challenges and opportunities facing this industry. Headlines from sources such as Utility Dive and Factor This™ emphasize advancements in smart grid technology and clean energy, which are critical to the sector's evolution. Mark Ellis, a former utility executive turned activist, has highlighted the financial burden posed by rising electricity costs, potentially affecting investor sentiment towards utility-focused ETFs like TPHE. Additionally, macroeconomic developments, such as Hungary's nomination of Daniel Palotai, may have indirect implications for TPHE through shifts in global economic sentiment and energy prices. The ETF's exposure to utility stocks requires careful monitoring of regulatory changes and geopolitical events that could influence energy markets and, consequently, its performance.
Analyst Rating: Strong Sell
The Timothy Plan High Dividend Stock Enhanced ETF (TPHE) faces significant investment challenges, warranting a "Strong Sell" rating. The ETF's expense ratio of 0.52% is above the industry norm, potentially eroding investor returns. Negative net flow ratios over the past 7 and 30 days indicate weak investor confidence and possible liquidity concerns. TPHE's average returns—1.60% over six months, 6.40% over one year, and 0.27% over three years—reveal insufficient growth potential. Although return stability is moderate, the ETF's max drawdown figures are alarming, nearly negating gains entirely over both one-year and three-year periods. The concentration in its top holdings and sectors is minimal, with the top 15 holdings accounting for only 20.07% of the portfolio and utilities making up 12.4% of sector exposure, signaling a lack of strategic focus. These factors collectively contribute to TPHE's weak investment profile.
Backtest Scenario
A backtest of TPHE during the 2022 energy crisis compared to 2025 market conditions provides insights into its strategy's effectiveness. During the 2022 energy crisis, TPHE's focus on high dividend stocks and volatility-weighted methodology likely offered stability, with high dividend stocks providing consistent income despite volatile stock prices. The ETF's approach of allocating more to stocks with lower volatility may have mitigated the impact of energy price shocks. Additionally, TPHE's tactical shift to cash equivalents during market declines could have safeguarded investor capital during the crisis's peak. In 2025, more stable market conditions have potentially allowed TPHE to benefit from dividend income and capital appreciation, as its risk management strategy has not been triggered due to the absence of significant market declines. Overall, TPHE's performance during the 2022 energy crisis demonstrated stability, while its strategy in 2025 has likely maintained consistent returns through dividends.
Risk Outlook
The Timothy Plan High Dividend Stock Enhanced ETF (TPHE) is exposed to several risks, primarily due to its significant holdings in the utilities sector. Regulatory changes, rising electricity costs, and the transition to clean energy pose challenges that could affect the profitability of its key holdings, like Evergy and Atmos Energy. Geopolitical tensions and energy price fluctuations further contribute to sector volatility. Additionally, European central bank policy shifts, as observed with Hungary's strategic alignments, may indirectly impact U.S. markets, affecting sectors sensitive to international dynamics. The ETF's negative net flow ratios highlight potential liquidity risks, indicating shifting investor sentiment. While TPHE's return volatility is moderate, its max drawdown underscores vulnerability to market downturns. Analysts should closely monitor regulatory environments, energy market dynamics, and international economic conditions, as these factors could exacerbate sector-specific risks.
Conclusion
For investors, TPHE may align more with a conservative investment strategy given its focus on high dividend stocks and risk mitigation during market downturns. However, the ETF's performance challenges and sector-specific risks necessitate careful monitoring of regulatory changes and energy market dynamics. Investors should remain vigilant about shifts in international economic conditions that could indirectly impact TPHE's sector exposures and overall investment viability.
Ask Aime: How does the Timothy Plan High Dividend Stock Enhanced ETF (TPHE) perform in a market downturn, and what strategies does it employ to manage risk?
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