ETF Outlook 2026: Six Major Shifts Shaping the Future of Wealth Management

After a landmark year of record-breaking inflows and a relentless wave of new product launches, the ETF ecosystem enters 2026 with unprecedented momentum. As the industry matures, the focus is shifting from simple broad-market access to more sophisticated, high-octane, and specialized vehicles.

Here are the six pivotal developments we expect to define the ETF landscape over the next 12 months.

1. The Great Cash Migration: SGOV Eyes the $100 Billion Milestone

The appetite for "cash-like" volatility with "bond-like" yields remains insatiable. We predict that the iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF (SGOV) will officially cross the $100 billion mark in Assets Under Management (AUM) this year.

Driven by an ongoing shift from traditional money market mutual funds (which still sit on a staggering $7.7 trillion pile) toward the efficiency of the ETF wrapper, SGOV is no longer just a trading tool—it is becoming a primary savings vehicle. With Vanguard's competing entry, VBIL, already amassing $4.7 billion in its first year, the "war for the wallet" is just beginning.

2. The "Income" Mirage: Evolution of Complex Derivatives

2025 was the year issuers proved they could put a covered-call overlay on almost anything. In 2026, expect this trend to get even more "creative"—and complex.

While we remain skeptical about whether these "synthetic income" products truly benefit long-term portfolios, their ability to gather assets is undeniable. To stand out in a saturated market, issuers will likely move beyond simple call-writing to multi-leg options strategies and "defined outcome" structures, stretching the definition of "income" to its absolute limit.

3. The Cult of the Manager: Rise of the ETF "Influencers"

The era of the faceless index fund is being challenged by the return of the "Star Manager." Following the path blazed by Cathie Wood (ARKK) and more recently Tom Lee (GRNY) and Dan Ives (IVES), we expect 2026 to see more high-profile stock pickers launch signature ETFs.

The successful 2025 debut of David Orr's Militia Long/Short Equity ETF (ORR) proved that even hedge fund-style strategies can build a devoted following if the initial performance "pops." In an AI-obsessed market, a charismatic manager with a bold vision can attract billions in a fraction of the time it took traditional mutual funds.

4. A Trillion-Dollar Milestone for VOO

While largely symbolic, the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) is on a collision course with history. Having attracted over $100 billion in fresh capital annually for two consecutive years, VOO currently sits at approximately $853 billion.

Unless we face a severe market contraction, 2026 will likely be the year VOO becomes the first-ever $1 trillion ETF. This milestone will serve as a powerful testament to the enduring dominance of low-cost, passive indexing.

5. Crypto ETFs: A Crowded Top and an "Empty" Middle

New SEC listing standards have triggered a flood of exotic crypto ETF filings. While you will soon be able to buy an ETF for almost any digital asset imaginable, the money will likely stay at the top.

History shows that liquidity begets liquidity. Despite the success of niche products like the Bitwise Solana Staking ETF (BSOL)—which hit $730 million in AUM—the lion's share of crypto flows will remain concentrated in the "Big Two": Bitcoin (IBIT) and Ethereum (ETHA). The middle market for secondary altcoin ETFs may struggle to find a permanent audience.

6. Private Credit ETFs: The "Square Peg" Problem

Despite the hype, we expect private credit ETFs to remain a niche and largely disappointing category in 2026.

The launch of SPDR SSGA IG Public & Private Credit ETF (PRIV) was a bold experiment in bringing illiquid assets to a liquid wrapper, but the results have been underwhelming. Since inception, PRIV's 5.6% return is only marginally better than the 4.9% delivered by the much simpler iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG). For most investors, the added complexity and lack of transparency simply don't justify the slim performance premium.