ETF Floodgates Stay Open: Bitcoin and Ethereum’s Q4 Setup

Bitcoin — ETF Money Keeps Streaming In

U.S. spot-BTC ETFs just chalked up ~$5B of net inflows in seven trading days, already topping all of September’s monthly total. Assets across the cohort now exceed $160B, underscoring how ETFs remain the dominant marginal buyer this cycle.

On-chain and flow watchers say the backdrop could strengthen into year-end. Glassnode calls out a “sustained trend of inflows between October and November,” noting renewed spot demand alongside record activity in derivatives—conditions that have historically supported Q4 rallies. Glassnode Insights

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan adds fuel to the bull case, arguing Q4 ETF subscriptions are on pace to surpass the prior record of $36B set in 2024 as institutions green-light allocations and the “debasement trade” narrative spreads. Cointelegraph

Despite a fresh all-time high near $126K this week, price action has cooled to the $122K–$124K area as a firmer U.S. dollar and shutdown headlines nick risk appetite—classic cross-asset friction after big crypto runs.

Under the surface, profit-taking remains contained: net realized profits over the past 30 days (~0.26M BTC) are well below past cycle peaks—evidence that many holders are still sitting tight. If ETF demand persists, that leaves room for upside. Meanwhile, CryptoQuant and bank desks frame a plausible $160K–$200K year-end path if flows keep absorbing supply.

Investor takeaway: For momentum traders, a daily close > $126K would reassert trend strength. Longer-horizon allocators can continue gradual accumulation, with ETF demand and sticky supply dynamics setting the stage for any push toward the $160K–$200K band.

Ethereum — Treasury Buys & ETF Inflows Power a Rebound

Bit Digital just added 31,057 ETH, lifting its treasury to ~150,244 ETH and placing it among the top six corporate holders worldwide—another datapoint that treasuries are becoming a structural bid for ETH.

On the fund side, U.S. spot ETH ETFs posted seven straight days of inflows and $421M on Oct. 7 alone, while exchange reserves grind to multi-year lows—both consistent with persistent demand. ETH reclaimed ~$4,500 after a quick shakeout that triggered >$90M in liquidations, and futures open interest has rebounded toward ~$60B as buyers defended the $4,400 area.

Investor takeaway: Dips toward $4,400–$4,300 look attractive for staged adds while ETF inflows, corporate treasuries, and declining exchange supply provide a backstop. A decisive push through $4,900–$5,000 would confirm the next leg higher.

Quick Macro Context

This week’s USD rebound—on track for one of its best weeks of 2025—plus ongoing U.S. government shutdown headlines are near-term speed bumps for risk assets broadly. Crypto’s ability to digest a stronger dollar while maintaining inflows will be a key tell into mid-October.

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