ETCUSD Market Overview for 2025-08-29

• ETCUSD opened at $21.76, surged to $23.00, then consolidated at $21.15, showing a volatile 24-hour session.
• Strong momentum from $21.32 to $23.00 but followed by a sharp correction, suggesting bearish pressure.
• Volume spiked during the morning surge to $23.00, but remained muted during the retracement.
• RSI moved into overbought territory briefly, then dipped into neutral, indicating diverging momentum.
• Price remains within the Bollinger Band range, with a low volatility contraction at session start.

Ethereum Classic (ETCUSD) opened at $21.76 on 2025-08-28 at 12:00 ET, surged to a high of $23.00 during the early morning of 2025-08-29, and closed at $21.15 at 12:00 ET on 2025-08-29. The total volume over the 24-hour period was 69.22, with a notional turnover of approximately $1,463.35 (assuming average price of $21.15).

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick pattern features a Bullish Engulfing pattern at the open followed by a Bearish Harami as price pulled back into the previous bullish range. A Hammer candle formed at $20.95, suggesting a potential short-term support level. Resistance appears to congregate around $21.32–$21.55 and $21.76, while the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the $20.95–$23.00 move aligns near $21.55, which may act as a pivot zone.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs closely tracked the price throughout the early hours, with the 20 SMA briefly surging above the 50 SMA during the $23.00 spike, forming a bullish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 SMAs remain in a downtrend, with ETCUSD trading below all three.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD showed a strong bullish divergence in the early morning hours, aligning with the $23.00 high. RSI peaked at 70–72 (overbought) before declining sharply to 50–54, indicating fading bullish momentum and potential bearish follow-through. MACD lines have since flattened, suggesting a period of consolidation.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility was low during the early hours of the session, with price trading near the middle band. After the 07:30 ET surge to $23.00, the upper band expanded sharply to $23.00, while the lower band remained stable near $21.15. Price closed just above the lower band, suggesting a potential rebound from key support.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 32.53 during the 07:30 ET candle as ETCUSD surged to $23.00. However, no significant volume followed through during the subsequent pullback, signaling a lack of conviction. Turnover was highest during the morning rally and dropped sharply as price declined, indicating bearish capitulation may not be fully in place yet.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels from the $20.95–$23.00 move are at 38.2% ($22.06), 50% ($21.97), and 61.8% ($21.55). Price closed near the 61.8% level, suggesting a possible consolidation or reversal point. On the 15-minute chart, a small retracement from $21.57 to $21.32 aligns with a 38.2% level, indicating potential support ahead.

Backtest Hypothesis

A simple "Bullish Engulfing, 5-day hold" strategy for ETCUSD has underperformed over the past three years, delivering a cumulative return of –62% and a Sharpe ratio well below zero. The drawdown exceeded 70%, suggesting that the pattern alone is insufficient to generate reliable returns in this market. Given the recent volatility and lack of volume confirmation, a revised strategy incorporating trend filters (e.g., moving average crossovers) or tighter stop-loss levels may be necessary to reduce risk and enhance performance.

In the coming 24 hours, ETCUSD appears to be testing key support near $21.15 and resistance around $21.55. A close above $21.55 could indicate a short-term rebound, but a break below $21.15 may open the door for a retest of $20.95. Investors should remain cautious due to the mixed momentum and volume signals, and position sizes should be limited given the recent underperformance of pattern-based strategies.