Estimating The Fair Value Of Paycom Software, Inc. (NYSE:PAYC)

Paycom Software, Inc. (NYSE:PAYC) is a leading provider of cloud-based human capital management software, with a market capitalization of $12.29 billion. To estimate its fair value, we can use a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, which involves projecting future free cash flows and discounting them to their present value. Here's a step-by-step analysis:

1. **Project Future Cash Flows**: We use analyst estimates and historical growth rates to project Paycom's cash flows over the next ten years. Assuming an average growth rate of 10.5% for FCF, we estimate the following cash flow projections:

| Year | Levered FCF (in $ millions) |
| --- | --- |
| 2025 | 389 |
| 2026 | 373 |
| 2027 | 386 |
| 2028 | 387 |
| 2029 | 384 |
| 2030 | 378 |
| 2031 | 370 |
| 2032 | 361 |
| 2033 | 351 |

2. **Discount Cash Flows**: We discount these future cash flows at a rate of 6.3%, which is based on Paycom's levered beta of 0.884. The present value of these cash flows is $3.7 billion.

3. **Calculate Terminal Value**: After the initial ten-year period, we assume a constant growth rate of 2.6% for the terminal value, which is calculated as $18 billion.

4. **Estimate Fair Value**: The total fair value is the sum of the present value of the cash flows and the terminal value, which equals $14 billion. To find the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the number of outstanding shares (55.89 million), resulting in a fair value of $244 per share.

Based on this analysis, Paycom Software appears to be trading at a discount of 6.4% to its fair value. However, it's essential to consider other valuation methods and factors when making investment decisions.

The DCF model is a powerful tool for estimating the fair value of a company, but it's not without its limitations. The accuracy of the DCF analysis depends on the accuracy of the input assumptions, such as future cash flow projections and discount rates. Additionally, the DCF model assumes that the company will be able to maintain its current growth rate indefinitely, which may not be realistic.

Investors should also consider other valuation methods, such as relative valuation, to gain a more comprehensive understanding of Paycom's fair value. Relative valuation involves comparing a company's valuation metrics, such as the price-to-earnings ratio (P/E), to those of its peers. This can provide valuable insights into whether a company is overvalued or undervalued relative to its industry peers.

In conclusion, the DCF analysis suggests that Paycom Software is trading at a discount to its fair value. However, investors should be cautious and consider other valuation methods and factors when making investment decisions. By conducting a thorough analysis and considering multiple perspectives, investors can make more informed decisions and potentially identify undervalued opportunities in the market.