Estimating The Fair Value Of CAR Group Limited (ASX:CAR)

CAR Group Limited (ASX:CAR), a leading online automotive classifieds business, has reported robust growth and global expansion. To estimate the fair value of CAR Group, we must consider its risk profile, international expansion, capital structure, and the impact of acquisitions.


1. **Risk Profile and Discount Rate:**
CAR Group's risk profile is comparable to its industry peers, with a moderate level of risk. Considering its diversified revenue streams and international presence, an appropriate discount rate for valuation purposes could be around 8-10%.

2. **International Expansion and Discount Rate:**
CAR Group's international expansion, particularly in Latin America and North America, has contributed to its growth. However, the varying economic and regulatory environments in these regions may introduce additional risks, warranting a slightly higher discount rate of 9-11%.

3. **Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC):**
CAR Group's capital structure consists primarily of equity and debt. Assuming a cost of equity of 10% and a cost of debt of 5% with a tax rate of 30%, the WACC can be calculated as follows:
WACC = (E/V * Re) + ((D/V * Rd) * (1 - T))
WACC = (0.8 * 0.1) + ((0.2 * 0.05) * (1 - 0.3)) = 8.3%


4. **Impact of Discount Rate on Fair Value:**
The choice of discount rate significantly impacts the estimated fair value of CAR Group. Using a discount rate of 8% and projected free cash flows, the estimated fair value of CAR Group is approximately AUD 3.2 billion. However, this value could change to AUD 2.8 billion if the discount rate is increased to 11%.


In conclusion, estimating the fair value of CAR Group Limited (ASX:CAR) requires a thorough analysis of its risk profile, international expansion, capital structure, and the impact of acquisitions. By considering these factors and using an appropriate discount rate, investors can make informed decisions about the company's valuation.