Estee Lauder Stock Jumps 3.44% as Technicals Signal Bullish Breakout

The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) gained 3.44% in its latest trading session, closing at $89. This analysis examines the stock's technical posture across multiple indicators using the provided historical price data.
Candlestick Theory
EL's price action reveals significant formations over the past year. A large bullish engulfing candle formed on July 10, 2025, on exceptionally high volume (over 5.9 million shares), signaling strong buying pressure after a downtrend. More recently, the price consolidated between $85-$87, forming multiple dojis and small-bodied candles near the late June/early July swing low support around $85. The latest strong white candle breaking above the $87 resistance level suggests potential continuation upside. Key support now resides near $85-$86 (prior consolidation zone), while resistance is evident near the $91-$92 area (June highs).
Moving Average Theory
The relationship between moving averages presents a complex picture. A bullish Golden Cross occurred in late April 2025 when the 50-day MA crossed above the 100-day MA. However, the subsequent rally failed decisively at the declining 200-day MA near $92-$93 in April and again in early July, highlighting this as a significant long-term resistance zone. Currently, the shorter-term 50-day MA ($87.50 approx.) and 100-day MA ($85 approx.) exhibit a positive slope and maintain their bullish order beneath the price, suggesting near-term support. The 200-day MA remains overhead near $92.75, capping the current recovery. The narrowing spread between the 50-day and 100-day MA warrants monitoring for a potential loss of short-term momentum.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram has recently turned positive after a period near or below zero, indicating nascent positive momentum following the consolidation. The signal line and MACD line appear poised for a bullish crossover near the zero line, which would be a constructive development. KDJ readings offer a more bullish momentum signal. The K-line crossed above the D-line from oversold territory (below 30) around the $85-$86 support zone in mid-July. Both K and D lines are now rising, though not yet overbought (below 70), suggesting room for continued upside potential in the near term. The KDJ recovery from oversold levels supports the recent price bounce.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands exhibited noticeable contraction during the consolidation period between early July and mid-July 2025, indicating reduced volatility and a potential impending breakout. The recent price advance saw EL break decisively above the 20-period middle band (around $86.50-$87) and test the upper band near $89.12. This breakout suggests renewed bullish momentum and increasing volatility. Sustained trading above the middle band would signal a strengthening uptrend. Support now aligns with the middle band and the breakout point near $87.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume provides crucial confirmation signals. Significant upward price moves on July 10th (+6.34%), July 2nd (+4.08%), and July 1st (+5.33%) were accompanied by robust volume surges (5.9M, 7M, and 6M shares respectively), validating those bullish breakouts. Importantly, the latest 3.44% gain on July 22nd occurred on above-average volume (~3.02M shares vs recent ~2.5M), lending credibility to the breakout above $87 resistance. Conversely, the sharp decline on April 3rd (-15.37%) saw high volume (11.3M shares), confirming the bearish conviction at that time. This volume profile supports the validity of key breakouts.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-period RSI recovered from oversold territory near 30 in late June but failed to reach overbought (>70) during the subsequent bounce, peaking around 65 in early July. The latest price jump pushed RSI towards the mid-60s again. While not overbought yet, it’s approaching levels where the rally may stall or consolidate. Notably, bearish divergence emerged during the April peak; price reached a higher high above $97 while RSI made a lower high near 60, foreshadowing the severe downturn. While RSI currently suggests upward momentum is building but not exhausted, traders should be mindful of its tendency to give warning signals before outright reversals.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci retracement to the significant downtrend from the March/April 2024 highs (near $100-$102) down to the late June 2025 low of $67.11 provides key levels. The 38.2% retracement level sits near $81.40, which acted as resistance in late June. The crucial 50% retracement level is approximately $84.50, aligning with the recent strong support zone. The 61.8% retracement resides near $87.60-$88.00. EL has recently closed above this level, turning it into potential support. The next significant resistance target aligns with the 78.6% retracement near $91.50 and the psychological $92 level, converging with the 200-day MA resistance zone. This confluence makes $91-$92 a critical overhead barrier.
Summary Confluence and Divergences
Key technical confluence exists around the $91-$92 price zone. This level represents the swing high resistance from June 2025, the declining 200-day moving average, and the significant 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level from the prior downtrend. A decisive break above $92 on strong volume would signal a major bullish shift. Conversely, failure here is highly probable without substantial buying pressure. Support is solid near $85-$86 (recent consolidation floor, 50% Fibonacci, ascending 100-day MA). A minor bearish divergence is noted where price made a higher low in mid-July ($85.83) compared to the late June low ($67.11), while RSI made a lower low at that point. However, the subsequent price/RSI recovery mitigated this concern for now. Momentum indicators (MACD, KDJ) support a near-term continuation of the bounce, validated by the recent volume-backed breakout. Probabilistically, while the near-term bias leans bullish towards testing $92, overcoming this formidable resistance remains an unconfirmed challenge.