Estee Lauder Jumps 6.34% To $92.10 In Second Day Of Bullish Rally

The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) saw a significant surge of 6.34% in its latest trading session, closing at $92.10. This marks the second consecutive day of gains, contributing to a two-day rally of 7.64%. This strong positive momentum forms the backdrop for the following technical assessment.
Candlestick Theory
Recent candlestick patterns suggest a potential shift in sentiment. The most recent session formed a large bullish candle, closing near its high ($92.65) after breaking decisively above the prior consolidation range near $85-$88. This breakout candle, coupled with a smaller bullish candle on 2025-07-09, indicates bullish conviction. Key resistance now lies near the recent high of $92.65, while initial support is established around the breakout point of $88.92-$89.25. A more significant support zone resides near the June swing low of $67.31.
Moving Average Theory
Price has moved decisively above the key 50-day and 100-day moving averages (estimated in the mid-$80s), turning these levels into potential support. The bullish crossover where the shorter 50-day MA appears poised to cross above the 100-day MA reinforces improving short-to-medium-term momentum. Crucially, the price remains well above the rising long-term 200-day moving average (estimated in the low-$80s), confirming the primary uptrend remains intact. The current alignment suggests the short-term trend is increasingly synchronized with the long-term bullish bias.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD indicator (12,26,9) has crossed above its signal line and is rising above the zero line, confirming increasing bullish momentum. The KDJ oscillator, particularly the %K line, is rising within neutral territory after recently emerging from oversold conditions below 30. While both indicators support the current bullish price action, neither is yet in overbought territory (KDJ typically >80, MACD with high positive histogram), suggesting room for further upside potential barring new bearish catalysts.
Bollinger Bands
Price has breached the upper Bollinger Band ($92.65) on significantly expanded volume. While this often signals a strong breakout, it can also indicate short-term overextension relative to the bands' volatility (calculated from the 20-period SMA). The prior contraction of the bands, indicating reduced volatility, foreshadowed a significant directional move. The close above the upper band suggests strong buying pressure, but traders often watch for a move back inside the bands or potential band expansion confirming the new trend.
Volume-Price Relationship
The breakout above $89 on 2025-07-10 was validated by a substantial surge in volume (5.9 million shares), significantly exceeding the average volume seen during the preceding consolidation. This high-volume breakout is a strong positive confirmation signal. Subsequent sessions should ideally show volume supporting further advances or orderly retracements. Declining volume during pullbacks would suggest a lack of strong selling pressure, supporting bullish continuation.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-period RSI has risen sharply from its recent low near 40 and is currently approaching the mid-60s. This trajectory supports the bullish price move. While currently below the overbought threshold of 70, continued upward price movement could push it into warning territory. It's noteworthy that the RSI formed a bullish divergence in April 2025 as price made lower lows while the RSI made higher lows, preceding the current advance. The RSI reinforces the improving momentum but warrants monitoring near the 70 level.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci retracement to the key swing low of $67.31 (2025-06-13) to the recent high of $92.65 yields critical levels. The 23.6% retracement lies near $88.54, which aligned with the consolidation zone and breakout point – this level has now become major support. Subsequent retracement levels are: 38.2% at $84.51, 50% at $79.98, and 61.8% at $75.45. These levels offer potential downside targets if a deeper retracement materializes. The prior consolidation aligns tightly with the 23.6% level, increasing its technical significance as a support zone.
Conclusion
Technical analysis for The Estee Lauder indicates strong bullish momentum confirmed by multiple indicators. The high-volume breakout above key resistance ($88.92-$89.25), supported by bullish moving average crossovers, MACD uptrend, KDJ ascent, and rising RSI, points to potential continuation. Key resistance is established at $92.65, the daily high. Strong initial support resides between $88.54 (Fibonacci 23.6%) and $88.92 (recent low). A sustained move above current levels targeting recent highs seems probable in the near term, though the close above the Bollinger Band and rapid RSI climb warrant monitoring for potential short-term consolidation or minor pullback to test newfound support. Confluence around $88.50-$89.00 is a critical zone defining the breakout's sustainability.