Estee Lauder Jumps 5.37% To 85.14 As Bullish Signals Converge

The most recent trading session for The Estee Lauder (EL) concluded with a 5.37% gain to $85.14, extending a five-day winning streak that has yielded a 10.50% advance. This momentum provides critical context for the technical assessment.
Candlestick Theory
Recent candlestick patterns reveal a decisive bullish breakout. The current five-day rally consists of consecutive green candles with progressively higher closes, confirming strong buyer dominance. A resistance level near $85.65 (July 1 high) is being challenged, while support emerges at $80.40 (July 1 low), aligning with June 26-27 consolidation. The absence of reversal patterns (e.g., shooting stars or bearish engulfing) at current levels suggests continued upside potential.
Moving Average Theory
The moving average configuration indicates a robust bullish trend. The 50-day MA ($75.80) has crossed above the 100-day MA ($78.50), forming a golden cross. Simultaneously, the price has reclaimed the 200-day MA ($82.00), turning it into support. This alignment – with the shortest average above the longer ones and price above all three – signals a sustained upward trajectory. The series of higher lows since late May reinforces this structure.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram shows widening positive momentum, with the MACD line accelerating above its signal line. Meanwhile, the KDJ oscillator presents a near-term caution: The %K (88) and %D (85) lines are deeply in overbought territory (>80), historically associated with consolidation. However, no bearish divergence exists yet, as both price and momentum indicators are making higher highs. This suggests pullbacks may be shallow before trend resumption.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands highlight expanding volatility during the recent rally. Price is hugging the upper band ($86.50), indicating strong bullish momentum. The June 24 contraction (squeeze near $78) resolved upward, supporting the current breakout. While extended proximity to the upper band hints at short-term overheating, the decisive band expansion supports continuation after potential consolidation.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume patterns validate the rally’s strength. The five-day advance occurred on rising volume, peaking at 5.55 million shares on July 1 – significantly above the 30-day average. The June 16 surge (10.82% gain on 10.75M shares) first signaled institutional accumulation. Conversely, April declines saw volume spikes during selloffs, confirming capitulation. Current volume-supported gains imply sustainable demand.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (72) has breached the overbought threshold (70) but lacks divergence warnings. While such levels sometimes precede consolidations, the indicator’s new high (from 44 in early June) aligns with the price breakout. RSI readings above 70 have persisted during prior strong trends (e.g., January 2025), suggesting overbought conditions may extend. Traders should monitor for bearish divergence if prices rise while RSI retreats.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the dominant downtrend from the February peak ($97.24) to the April trough ($54.39) reveals key levels. The rally has surpassed the 61.8% retracement ($82.50), turning resistance into support. The 78.6% level ($88.00) becomes the next upside target, while the 50% level ($75.80) now aligns with the 100-day MA, creating a major confluence support zone. This structure suggests room for further upside before significant technical friction.
Confluence and Divergence
Confluent bullish signals dominate: Volume validates the breakout, MACD/KDJ show aligned momentum, and Fibonacci levels coincide with moving average support. The sole divergence is technical – overbought KDJ readings against ongoing price strength – though this lacks historical confirmation as a reversal precursor. Overall, the weight of evidence favors continuation, with key support at $82.00 (200-day MA/61.8% Fibonacci) and resistance near $88.00 (78.6% Fibonacci).