Estee Lauder Jumps 4.88% As Technical Indicators Signal Bullish Momentum

Current Trading Update
The Estee Lauder (EL) advanced 4.88% to close at $78.86 in the latest session, extending gains to 5.54% over two consecutive trading days. This momentum occurs amid technical signals that warrant detailed examination across multiple frameworks.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action displays constructive patterns, including a Hammer formation near the $68.78 low (June 16) followed by a Bullish Engulfing candle (June 23) that closed near the session high ($79.25). These suggest accumulation after the April-June downtrend. Critical support now resides near $68.78–$70.00, while resistance converges at $79.25–$80.00. A sustained breach above $80 would signal a potential trend shift.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day MA (~$75.86) recently crossed above the 100-day MA (~$78.44), signaling improving medium-term momentum. However, the 200-day MA ($85.52) maintains a downtrend, reflecting persistent long-term pressure. Current price trades above the 50-day but below the 100-day and 200-day MAs, indicating a tentative recovery phase within a broader bearish structure.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD shows a bullish crossover as the histogram turns positive, reinforcing upward momentum. KDJ exhibits a bullish signal with the %K line crossing %D above the 20 oversold threshold. Both oscillators align in suggesting near-term upside potential, though KDJ’s %J (87.2) approaches overbought territory, warranting vigilance for consolidation.
Bollinger Bands
Bands contracted sharply during May-June, indicating low volatility preceding the current breakout. Price has now punched above the 20-day moving average (middle band) and tests the upper band ($79.80), which often acts as short-term resistance. Expanding band width supports continued directional momentum if the breakout holds.
Volume-Price Relationship
The rebound off June’s $68.78 low occurred on significantly elevated volume (6.5M shares vs. 3M average), validating buyer conviction. Subsequent up days (June 23: 6M shares) show volume expansion, confirming accumulation. This volume profile enhances the credibility of the nascent uptrend.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (60.72) climbed from oversold (<30) in early June to neutral territory, reflecting improving momentum without immediate overbought risks. While above 50 favors bulls, the lack of divergence implies alignment with the price trend.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib levels to the decline from the $115.13 high (June 24, 2024) to the $60.92 low (May 9, 2025) yields key retracement zones. The 38.2% level ($79.09) aligns precisely with the June 23 high. Sustained trading above this level could expose the 50% retracement ($88.02), while failure here may trigger pullbacks to the 23.6% support ($73.15).
Confluence & Divergence Assessment
Confluence appears strongest at the $79–$80 resistance zone, where price faces:
- Bollinger Upper Band ($79.80)
- 100-day MA ($78.44)
- 38.2% Fibonacci retracement ($79.09)
- Psychological $80 level
A decisive close above $80 would align with bullish MACD, volume, and candlestick signals, potentially accelerating gains. No material divergences currently appear, though RSI’s neutral stance leaves room for further recovery before overbought concerns emerge.
Conclusion
The Estee Lauder displays technically constructive signals following its June rebound, supported by volume, momentum oscillators, and MA crossovers. A break above the $79–$80 confluence resistance is critical to confirm trend reversal potential toward $88 (Fib 50%). Failure to breach this zone may trigger retracement toward $73–$75 support. Risk-reward appears favorable above $75 with tight stops, though the dominant long-term trend remains bearish below the 200-day MA ($85.52).