Estee Lauder Jumps 10.82% On Bullish Technical Breakout

The Estee Lauder (EL) surged 10.82% in the latest session (June 16, 2025), closing at 74.59 after trading between 68.78 and 74.6, marking a significant bullish reversal following recent volatility. This analysis evaluates technical indicators to assess the stock’s trajectory.
Candlestick Theory
A robust bullish engulfing pattern emerged on June 16, as the session’s wide-ranged green candle fully eclipsed the previous day’s bearish body. This signals strong buying momentum, with immediate resistance at 75.00–76.00 (March 2025 highs) and support near 67.30 (June 13 swing low). The pattern’s confirmation above 74.60 validates a short-term trend reversal.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day MA (69.50) recently crossed above the 100-day MA (72.00), forming a bullish golden cross, while the 200-day MA (75.80) caps upside. The price at 74.59 trades above the 50/100-day MAs but below the 200-day MA, indicating improving intermediate momentum yet facing long-term trend resistance. A sustained break above 75.80 would confirm a major bullish trend shift.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD (12,26,9) exhibits a bullish crossover with the histogram expanding positively since early June, reinforcing upward momentum. Concurrently, the KDJ’s %K (85) and %D (80) reside in overbought territory, suggesting near-term exhaustion risk. While MACD supports continuation, KDJ’s overbought divergence advises caution for pullbacks, though strong trends can sustain such readings.
Bollinger Bands
June 16’s price breached the upper Bollinger Band (20-day SMA at 70.00, σ=2), signaling an overextended move. This follows a volatility contraction (band squeeze) in late May, often preceding directional breakouts. The sharp band expansion validates upside momentum, but mean reversion toward the 20-day SMA (70.00) remains probable short term.
Volume-Price Relationship
The breakout was confirmed by surging volume (6.38M shares vs. 30-day avg ~3.5M), reflecting strong accumulation. Notable volume spikes accompanied other key up days (e.g., April 9 at 12.19% gain, May 29 at 3.62% gain), reinforcing bullish conviction. Declining volume during the May consolidation phase—followed by high breakout volume—supports trend sustainability.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI spiked to 75 after the surge, entering overbought territory (>70). While historically signaling pullbacks (e.g., RSI >70 preceded declines in early March), it has remained elevated during strong rallies (e.g., April recovery). The RSI’s higher low in late May vs. price’s flat consolidation forms a bullish divergence, indicating strengthening momentum.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the downtrend from 114.88 (June 17, 2024) to 50.06 (April 8, 2025), the 61.8% retracement (76.27) aligns with the 200-day MA (75.80) as critical resistance. The price has surpassed the 50% level (66.11) and now challenges this key barrier. A decisive close above 76.27 would expose 82.47 (78.6% retracement), while failure here may trigger retracement toward 70.00 support.
Confluence & Divergence Insights
Confluence supports a bullish bias: Volume validates the breakout, MACD/MA crosses align with trend strength, and RSI divergence signals accumulation. However, divergences exist—KDJ overbought conditions contrast with MACD’s continuation signal, and Bollinger Band extension conflicts with Fibonacci/200-MA resistance. This suggests upside potential above 76.27 but vulnerability to consolidation below it. Probabilistically, breach of 76.27 may catalyze extended gains, while rejection could retest 70.00–71.00 support.