Estée Lauder Surges 2.87% on CPI Relief and Analyst Upgrade, Trading Volume Ranks 421st as Q4 Outlook Clouds Gains

On August 12, 2025, The Estée Lauder Companies (EL) rose 2.87% to $91.26, closing with a trading volume of $0.25 billion, ranking 421st in market activity. The move followed a stronger-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which showed a 2.7% annual inflation rate—below the 2.8% forecast. The data signaled easing price pressures, particularly in food and grocery sectors, which analysts view as favorable for consumer goods firms. A Federal Reserve official’s remarks reinforcing consumer spending resilience further supported the stock’s upward momentum.

Recent analyst activity has also influenced sentiment. JPMorgan upgraded EL from “Neutral” to “Overweight” in late July, raising its price target from $62 to $101, citing strong performance during the “6.18 event” shopping festival and improved online sales. This upgrade placed EL on the firm’s “Positive Catalyst Watch,” highlighting anticipation for its upcoming earnings report. Over the past year, EL has experienced 20 moves exceeding 5%, reflecting its volatility but indicating today’s gain aligns with typical market reactions rather than a fundamental shift in business perception.

Looking ahead, EL faces challenges in its fourth-quarter outlook. Persistent weakness in Mainland China and global travel retail, exacerbated by a 28% organic sales decline in Asia-Pacific during Q3, could pressure results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects net sales of $3.4 billion for Q4, a 12.2% drop year-over-year, with earnings expected at $0.08 per share, down 87.5% from the prior year. Despite these headwinds, the company’s “Profit Recovery and Growth Plan”—focusing on margin expansion and digital channel investments—offers a potential offset to operational challenges.

A backtest of a strategy involving the top 500 stocks by daily trading volume, held for one day, yielded a total profit of $2,550 from 2022 to the present. The approach faced a maximum drawdown of -15.2% on October 27, 2022, underscoring its volatility while demonstrating overall profitability during the period.