Estée Lauder stock surges on JPMorgan's upbeat outlook for recovery.

Estée Lauder's stock rose 4% after JPMorgan upgraded it to "overweight" and raised the target price to $101. Analysts see signs of sales recovery and potential positive surprises in earnings from FY 2026/2027, when the company's PRGP turnaround plan will take effect. Strong online sales and better-than-expected performance during the summer promotional event are cited as reasons for optimism.

Estee Lauder Companies Inc (The) stock rose 4% on Friday, July 25, 2025, following a positive upgrade from JPMorgan. The financial services giant upgraded the stock to "overweight" and raised the target price to $101. This move reflects analysts' optimism about the company's sales recovery and potential positive surprises in earnings from FY 2026/2027. The upgrade comes as Estee Lauder is expected to benefit from its PRGP turnaround plan, strong online sales, and better-than-expected performance during the summer promotional event.

On Friday, Estee Lauder's stock price gained 4.18%, rising from $86.77 to $90.40. The stock fluctuated 3.96% during the day, with a day low at $87.04 and a day high of $90.49. Over the last 10 days, the stock has risen in 6 of the last 10 days but is still down by -0.75% for this period. The increased volume of 2 million more shares traded than the day before, totaling 7 million shares, is a positive technical sign [1].

Analysts at JPMorgan see signs of sales recovery and potential positive surprises in earnings from FY 2026/2027, when the company's PRGP turnaround plan will take effect. Strong online sales and better-than-expected performance during the summer promotional event are cited as reasons for optimism. The PRGP turnaround plan is expected to drive growth and improve profitability for the company.

The stock holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages, giving a positive forecast. The relation between the two signals, where the short-term average is above the long-term average, indicates a general buy signal. Corrections down may find support from the lines at $87.95 and $81.04. A breakdown below these levels will issue sell signals. Volume is rising along with the price, which is considered a good technical signal [1].

For the upcoming trading day on Monday, July 28, 2025, Estee Lauder is expected to open at $89.31 and move between $88.98 and $91.82. This gives a possible trading interval of +/-$2.84 (+/-3.19%) up or down from the last closing price. If the stock takes out the full calculated possible swing range, there will be an estimated 3.19% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day [1].

Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 55.78% during the next 3 months and hold a price between $130.07 and $153.38 at the end of this 3-month period. The predicted fair opening price on July 28, 2025, is $89.31 [1].

References:

[1] https://stockinvest.us/stock/EL
[2] https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/ITGR/earnings/