Essential Title: Economic Data Highlights for Week of July 20, 2025

The week of July 20, 2025, will feature key reports on June New and Existing Home Sales, as well as manufacturing surveys from the Richmond and Kansas City Fed. Other notable releases include the Mortgage Bankers Association's mortgage purchase applications index, existing home sales from the National Association of Realtors, and initial weekly unemployment claims. Durable goods orders for June will also be released.

The week of July 20, 2025, promises to be pivotal for investors and financial professionals, with a slate of key economic reports and Fed policy developments. The focus will be on the June New and Existing Home Sales data, manufacturing surveys from the Richmond and Kansas City Feds, and the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) mortgage purchase applications index, among other releases.

Housing Market Dynamics

The week begins with a significant report on June New and Existing Home Sales. The MBA Mortgage Market Index (MMI) surged to 281.6 in early July 2025, marking its highest reading since 2020. This robust housing demand signal, driven by resilient refinancing activity and low mortgage rates, is reshaping sector dynamics and providing investors with critical insights into portfolio rotation strategies [2].

The 7% weekly spike in refinancing and a 30-year fixed rate dip to 6.79% have immediate implications for various sectors. Construction and engineering firms like Caterpillar (CAT) and Lennar (LEN) benefit as housing demand fuels demand for construction equipment and homebuilding. Conversely, discretionary sectors such as auto stocks like General Motors (GM) and leisure firms like Carnival (CCL) face headwinds as households prioritize housing over non-essential spending [2].

Manufacturing and Economic Activity

The Richmond and Kansas City Fed manufacturing surveys will provide insights into the health of the manufacturing sector. The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index and the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index are crucial indicators of economic health. Additionally, the MBA Mortgage Market Index's July surge suggests that the Fed's reluctance to cut rates when the index stays above 240 for three consecutive months creates a "sweet spot" for construction stocks [2].

Employment and Durable Goods Orders

The week also features the release of initial weekly unemployment claims and durable goods orders for June. The initial claims data from the Department of Labor will give insights into the labor market's health. Durable goods orders, particularly for capital goods and shipments, are crucial indicators of business investment and economic activity [2].

Fed Policy Shifts

Fed Governor Christopher Waller's dovish comments have Treasury yields down by 2-3 basis points across the curve. Waller has reiterated his case for a July rate cut due to his opinion that "the private sector is not doing as well as everybody thinks it is." This stance contrasts with the more patient tone of most other FOMC members [1]. Investors should monitor the upcoming Fed meetings and policy statements for any shifts in monetary policy.

Conclusion

The week of July 20, 2025, will be marked by critical economic data releases and Fed policy developments. The housing market's resilience, manufacturing sector health, labor market conditions, and Fed policy shifts will all influence investor sentiment and portfolio strategies. Investors should closely monitor these indicators and adjust their portfolios accordingly.

References:

[1] https://www.almfirst.com/resources/beyond-the-headlines/july-18-2025-headlines
[2] https://www.ainvest.com/news/weekly-mba-mortgage-market-index-actual-13-previous-13-2507-48/