Erasca (ERAS) Surges 13% on AI Energy Hype and Analyst Upgrades – What’s Next?

Summary
• Erasca (ERAS) rockets to $9.40, hitting a 52-week high of $9.50 amid AI-driven energy infrastructure speculation.
• Analysts at HC Wainwright upgrade FY2027 EPS estimate to ($0.40) from ($0.44), maintaining a $11 price target.
• Options volume surges on ERAS20260417C10 and ERAS20260220C10 contracts, signaling bullish positioning.

Erasca’s 13.12% intraday rally has thrust it into the spotlight as AI’s energy demands and regulatory scrutiny over data centers collide. With the stock trading near its 52-week peak and technical indicators flashing bullish signals, investors are scrambling to decode whether this is a short-term pop or a catalyst for a sustained move. The stock’s sharp rebound from an intraday low of $8.04 underscores its volatility amid a broader debate over AI’s energy footprint.

AI Energy Infrastructure Narrative Fuels ERAS Rally
Erasca’s meteoric rise stems from a confluence of speculative fervor around AI’s energy demands and strategic analyst upgrades. The latest news highlights a 'toll booth' operator in energy infrastructure—positioned to profit from AI data centers’ insatiable power needs—though the article never explicitly names the company. This narrative has spilled into ERAS’s stock, which operates in biopharma but is now being conflated with energy-sector tailwinds. HC Wainwright’s upgraded FY2027 EPS forecast and $11 price target have added fuel, while the stock’s proximity to its 52-week high ($9.50) has triggered algorithmic buying. The broader context of AI-driven energy grid strain and Trump-era onshoring policies has created a self-fulfilling prophecy for speculative investors.

Options and Technicals Signal High-Volatility Play
• RSI: 87.96 (overbought), MACD: 1.05 (bullish), 200D MA: $2.08 (far below price), Bollinger Bands: $1.33–$7.61 (price near upper band)
• ERAS20260417C10 (Call, $10 strike, 2026-04-17): IV 119.95%, leverage 4.51%, delta 0.59, theta -0.0135, gamma 0.0677, turnover $18,049. High IV suggests volatility premium, moderate delta for directional exposure, and strong gamma for price sensitivity.
• ERAS20260220C10 (Call, $10 strike, 2026-02-20): IV 103.96%, leverage 9.02%, delta 0.51, theta -0.0211, gamma 0.1272, turnover $7,497. Aggressive theta decay (0.0211) and high gamma (0.1272) make it ideal for short-term rallies.

ERAS20260417C10 offers a 5% upside payoff of $0.70 (ST = $9.87), while ERAS20260220C10 yields $0.37. Both contracts capitalize on the stock’s proximity to $10 and the AI energy narrative. Aggressive bulls should target ERAS20260417C10 for a $9.87 breakout, while ERAS20260220C10 suits a $10.30 retest. Watch for a pullback to the 200D MA ($2.08) as a critical support level.

Backtest Erasca Stock Performance
The 13% intraday increase in ERAS from 2022 to now has not consistently led to positive short-to-medium-term gains. While the 3-Day, 10-Day, and 30-Day win rates are above 40%, the actual returns during these periods have been negative or only marginally positive. The maximum return during the backtest was only 0.21%, which occurred on January 35, 2026. This suggests that the intraday surge may not have translated into sustained long-term gains.

ERAS at Inflection Point – Act on AI Energy Narrative Before Volatility Fades
Erasca’s 13% surge hinges on its symbolic alignment with AI’s energy infrastructure needs, despite lacking direct ties to the sector. The stock’s technical setup—RSI overbought, MACD bullish, and price near 52-week highs—suggests a continuation of the rally if $10.30 (resistance) is breached. However, the lack of a leveraged ETF and high IV in options indicate volatility is priced in. For now, the stock is a high-risk, high-reward play. Watch NextEra Energy (NEE), the sector leader up 0.32%, for broader energy-sector cues. If ERAS fails to hold $8.50, the AI narrative could unravel. Act now: Buy ERAS20260417C10 into a $9.87 breakout or short-term dips to $8.50.