Equity Perps Challenge Stock Exchanges' Reign as 2025 Liquidity Shift Begins

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has predicted that crypto-style equity perpetuals (perps) will displace traditional stock exchanges within the next five years, driven by structural advantages in liquidity, leverage, and 24/7 trading. His forecast hinges on the migration of equity price discovery to perpetual futures markets, which he argues offer superior flexibility compared to conventional exchanges. Hayes cited Hyperliquid's HIP-3 protocol as a proof of concept, noting that the decentralized platform already facilitates equity perps like the Nasdaq 100 perpetual, which has recorded over $500 million in daily trading volume. This traction, he argues, demonstrates the scalability of on-chain equity perps and their potential to compete with legacy financial products according to Hayes.

The appeal of equity perps lies in their design: perpetual contracts with no expiration dates, allowing continuous trading and leveraging up to 100x in some cases. Hayes emphasized that these instruments consolidate liquidity into a single market, reflect real-time spot prices, and incorporate mechanisms like socialized loss systems and insurance funds to mitigate risk according to Hayes. For institutional and retail traders, this model offers round-the-clock access and reduced legal liability for margin deposits compared to traditional futures. The rise of decentralized protocols like Hyperliquid further lowers barriers to entry, enabling permissionless market creation and fostering financial inclusion according to Hayes.

Regulatory shifts, particularly in the U.S., are expected to accelerate this transition. Hayes linked the post-FTX regulatory relaxation under the 2025 Trump administration to a broader global trend of sandboxes and experimental frameworks for derivatives according to Hayes. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's revised 2025 plan, which aims to streamline crypto oversight and reduce compliance burdens, could further legitimize perpetual markets by aligning them with existing financial safeguards according to Cointelegraph. Major exchanges, including CBOE and SGX, are reportedly preparing to launch perpetual products by late 2025, signaling a critical juncture for traditional finance according to Hayes. Hayes warned that established exchanges risk losing liquidity and relevance if they fail to adopt the perpetual model, a trend he expects to peak by the late 2020s with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 perpetuals driving mass adoption according to Hayes.

While the focus remains on equity perps, other global developments highlight the evolving crypto landscape. Turkmenistan's 2026 crypto legalization law, which imposes strict state control, and South Korea's aggressive anti-money laundering (AML) measures, expanding transaction reporting to sub-$680 transfers, underscore the regulatory tightrope between innovation and oversight. Meanwhile, JPMorgan's foray into Bitcoin-backed bonds has drawn criticism from crypto advocates, who accuse the bank of undermining Bitcoin treasury companies through margin call strategies according to Cointelegraph. These dynamics illustrate the broader tension between institutional finance and decentralized markets, as regulators and market participants navigate the transition to a 24/7, on-chain financial ecosystem.