Equinor Soars 3.08%—Is This the Catalyst That Ignited the Bull Run?

Summary
• Equinor (EQNR) surges 3.08% to $26.885, breaking above its 52-week high of $28.29
• Third tranche of 2025 share buy-back program announced, with $134.47 million spent on 519,300 shares
• Technicals show short-term bullish momentum, but RSI near 50 suggests neutral positioning

Equinor’s intraday rally has captured market attention as its stock vaults 3.08% to $26.885, trading near the upper Bollinger Band. The move coincides with the third tranche of its 2025 share buy-back program, which has already repurchased 519,300 shares at an average price of NOK 258.95. While the broader energy sector remains mixed, Equinor’s sharp intraday high of $26.89 and low of $26.21 signal a surge in institutional interest. This article deciphers the drivers, technical signals, and options strategies to capitalize on the momentum.

Share Buy-Back Tranche Ignites Investor Confidence
Equinor’s sharp intraday rally is directly tied to its third tranche of the 2025 share buy-back program. The company has spent $134.47 million to repurchase 519,300 shares between July 24–25, averaging $258.95 per share. This aggressive repurchase reduces the float, signaling strong balance sheet flexibility and management confidence in the stock’s intrinsic value. The move aligns with Equinor’s strategy to return capital to shareholders amid stable cash flows from its integrated oil and gas operations. The buy-back announcement has triggered a short-term technical breakout, as the stock tests its 52-week high of $28.29.

Energy Sector Gains Momentum as XOM Leads
The broader energy sector showed resilience, with Exxon Mobil (XOM) rising 1.10% intraday, reinforcing sector-wide optimism. While Equinor’s rally is driven by its buy-back program, the sector’s performance highlights sustained investor appetite for energy stocks amid geopolitical and supply-demand dynamics. Equinor’s momentum, however, remains distinct from sector peers, as its share repurchases directly impact float reduction and investor sentiment.

Options and ETFs to Capitalize on Equinor’s Momentum
• 200-day average: $24.25 (below current price)
• RSI: 49.76 (neutral)
• MACD: 0.06 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: $24.897 (lower), $26.827 (upper)
• Kline pattern: Short-term bullish trend confirmed

Equinor’s technicals suggest a continuation of its bullish momentum, with the 52-week high of $28.29 acting as a critical resistance level. The stock’s current price of $26.885 is above both the 30D ($26.11) and 100D ($24.61) moving averages, reinforcing the near-term uptrend. For options traders, the EQNR20250919P26 (Put) and EQNR20250919C29 (Call) contracts stand out due to their high leverage ratios and moderate deltas. The EQNR20250919P26 has a delta of -0.381 (sensitive to price declines), implied volatility of 26.86%, and a leverage ratio of 34.39%, making it ideal for hedging a potential pullback. The EQNR20250919C29 offers a delta of 0.1899 (responsive to price gains) and a 107.30% leverage ratio, aligning with the stock’s bullish bias. A 5% upside scenario to $28.12 would yield a payoff of $2.12 for the call (max(0, $28.12 - $29)) and $0.36 for the put (max(0, $29 - $28.12)). Aggressive bulls may consider EQNR20250919C29 into a breakout above $26.827 (Bollinger upper band).

Backtest Equinor Stock Performance
The backtest of Equinor's (EQNR) performance after a -3% intraday surge shows mixed results. This suggests that although EQNR has a decent chance of recovering from an intraday plunge, longer-term returns are more variable.1. Short-Term Outlook: - The 3-day win rate is 50.79%, indicating that approximately half of the time, EQNR will experience a positive return after a -3% intraday surge. - However, the win rates are not overwhelmingly positive, suggesting that longer-term returns for EQNR after a -3% intraday surge are variable.2. Strategic Considerations: - Given the mixed results from the backtest, investors may consider a phased approach to investing in EQNR. - This could involve targeting short-term rebounds opportunistically while also preparing for potential longer-term fluctuations.In conclusion, while there is a reasonable probability of recovery for EQNR after a -3% intraday surge, the returns are generally more variable in the longer term. Investors should be mindful of these potential outcomes when making investment decisions for EQNR.

Act Now—Equinor’s Buy-Back Could Signal a Pivotal Shift
Equinor’s 3.08% intraday surge is a direct result of its aggressive third tranche buy-back, which has already repurchased 519,300 shares. The technicals and options data suggest this momentum could persist if the stock holds above its 30D MA of $26.11. Investors should monitor the 52-week high of $28.29 as a key inflection point, with a breakdown potentially triggering a shift to EQNR20250919P26 for downside protection. Meanwhile, the sector leader Exxon Mobil (XOM) has gained 1.10%, reinforcing the energy sector’s resilience. For those with a bullish bias, the EQNR20250919C29 call offers high leverage to capitalize on a breakout. Watch for a $28.29 close or a 52-week high breach to confirm the trend’s sustainability.